A power struggle within Poland’s ruling PiS party centers on future relations with Brussels, particularly regarding the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and energy policy.
First Clash with Brussels, Next Could Be Over ETS
The initial conflict with Brussels revolved around the rule of law, but the next potential battleground may be the ETS, with the balance of power on the right determining the outcome.
The nomination of Przemysław Czarnak as a potential prime minister hasn’t ended the internal struggle for succession and programmatic direction within the largest right-wing force in Poland.
Energy-Economic Divide Reveals Growing Rift with EU
The energy and economic dimension of this conflict confirms diagnoses of a mental divorce of parts of PiS from the European Union, but also demonstrates how difficult it will be to maintain unity within the formation in the future.
Opposition Presents Cascade of Energy Initiatives
After a period of relative inactivity, the largest opposition party has released a series of new initiatives, declarations, and projects regarding the country’s energy and industrial policy.
Mateusz Morawiecki presented the “Powered by Poland” strategic document in early March, but it was overshadowed by Przemysław Czarnak’s more forceful vision for policy, following his endorsement by the PiS leader as a future head of government.
“No OZE-Sroze” and a Reversal of Energy Course
Czarnak, with the phrase “no OZE-sroze” (a dismissive term for renewable energy sources), declared not only a withdrawal from the ETS but also a complete reversal of the current energy transition course – a course also pursued during the United Right’s rule.
“We have our coal mix, because we have our natural resources and stay away from them. We have our coal. Our coal,” he stated.
Nuanced Visions from Sasin and Nawrocki
Jacek Sasin, a prominent party vice-president who previously headed the State Assets Ministry, presented a more nuanced version of the program during a recent conference.
The President’s Chancellery, led by Nawrocki, also offered its own concepts in relation to the discussion on the Emissions Trading System (ETS).
Problematic Renewable Energy and State Intervention
Despite a seeming consensus – all are competing to propose effective, yet still largely unrealistic, postulates for abolishing, suspending, or weakening the ETS system – tensions and contradictions abound in the programs presented by different factions.
While Morawiecki draws on unorthodox economists, criticizing neoliberalism and advocating for active state industrial policy, his opponents adopt language closer to the Confederation party, like Sasin, who championed “market and common sense” and opposed regulation and fiscal intervention.
Divergences in Energy Mix Targets
While Czarnak views coal as the “foundation” of Polish energy, the word “coal” doesn’t appear once in Morawiecki’s strategy, which mentions gas as a transitional fuel, considered by Sasin as a “necessary evil” resulting from the development of renewable energy sources.
Morawiecki’s vision for Poland’s future relies on nuclear power (large and small reactors) combined with renewable sources.
Balancing Act: Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables
Former Minister of Assets, Sasin, speaks of a “balanced mix” of coal, nuclear, and renewable energy, suggesting a departure from the vision of nuclear energy replacing coal.
However, the attitude towards the renewable component of this mix remains, at best, ambivalent, despite acknowledging the need for all three pillars of energy and the fact that much of the existing wind and solar capacity was built or planned during the United Right’s rule.
These technologies, however, have disappointed Sasin, generating energy dependent on weather conditions and becoming a “costly addition” requiring further investment in gas sources and networks.
Cost Considerations and the Future of Coal
From Sasin’s perspective, coal, once freed from “burdens” like CO2 payments, will become the cheapest source of energy.
The question arises whether a “pro-market” PiS recipe would involve removing public support for mines, and whether energy powered by coal would still be the cheapest in that scenario, but such speculation is set aside.
How to Exit ETS? Diverging Approaches
There is no consensus within PiS on how to free the Polish economy from the ETS system.
Morawiecki proposes suspending and reforming the system at the European level, relying on a favorable evolution of moods within the EU, while Czarnak advocates for a unilateral exit and renegotiation with Brussels, based on the Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling deeming the ETS procedure incompatible with the Polish constitution.
Brussels’ Leverage and the “Mental Polexit”
Czarnak believes that the European Commission will lose its primary means of pressure on Poland once the country becomes a net contributor to the EU budget.
This closes the “mental Polexit” discussed in the context of rejecting the SAFE program.
Will PiS Embrace an “Polexit” Identity?
The question is whether PiS will present this “Polexit” face to voters in the next election, and whether Kaczyński’s renomination of Czarnak is intended to genuinely position him as the new leader or simply to amplify a campaign to win back eurosceptic voters from the right.
Reconciling these divergent viewpoints and maintaining unity will require increasing political maneuvering.
