A debate fueled by a former Polish minister’s article increasingly serves political mobilization rather than a realistic analysis of EU issues.
Polexit as a Political Tool
The debate surrounding a potential Polish exit from the European Union (Polexit), ignited by an article from former PiS minister Konrad Szymański, is increasingly used for political mobilization rather than genuine analysis of EU problems.
Ignoring the tensions and weaknesses within the EU community may prove more dangerous than discussing whether the right-wing in Poland could lead to an exit from the Union.
Difficulties in Criticizing Szymański
Critiquing a European affairs expert like Konrad Szymański is not easy. Furthermore, the subject of his article, “On the Road to Polexit,” published in “Plus Minus” on March 14th, is sensitive, as one risks being labeled a Polexit supporter—or even a “right-wing Polexit supporter”—which can shut down discussion and exclude the critic from respectable circles.
Despite this risk, it’s worth engaging with the topic for two main reasons, among others.
Politicizing EU Membership
The first reason is political: the danger that Polish membership in the EU will be incorporated into the logic of political struggle ahead of next year’s elections. This could cause the issue to become detached from reality and take on a life of its own.
The author himself inadvertently contributed to this danger, as his scholarly article was published by “Plus Minus” shortly after Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted to polarize the political scene by dividing people into supporters and opponents of the EU, hoping to replace the division between traitors and patriots.
Strategic Use of “Polexit”
In my opinion, it would be best to avoid using the term “Polexit” in expert discussions, given Konrad Szymański’s expertise. Arguments will inevitably be seized by political agitators and used as weapons against opponents.
Poland’s percentage of “exit” supporters is within the European average (around 20%, sometimes nearing 30% in France), but this doesn’t mean everyone is predicting an imminent departure. It’s better to discuss real issues instead of focusing on “exit.”
Underlying Problems with the EU
This leads to the second reason: the danger of dismissing the real problems that cause many societies to criticize the EU. Szymański addresses these problems, but doesn’t fully acknowledge their significance.
He mentions an “elusive emotion” differentiating approaches to established and newer EU member states, which “poisons relations and trust.” However, he doesn’t mention that the composition of the Brussels bureaucracy—nearly 80% from a few countries (Italy, Spain, Belgium, France, and Germany)—is a tangible problem, with higher positions increasingly occupied by individuals from these nations. This creates a “lack of political sensitivity in Brussels.”
Beyond Bureaucratic Composition
The composition of the EU bureaucracy is just one example of a problem that leads many—not just in Poland—to view the EU as a foreign entity. Attempts to manipulate democratic processes through randomly selected advisory groups, whose opinions were presented as “the voice of the people,” are also relevant, though thankfully this practice was limited to the previous European Commission.
Szymański’s View on Distrust
Konrad Szymański’s assertion that “distrust of Europe” (meaning the EU) was “created with half-truths and lies” seems overly radical. Understanding the source of this distrust might be aided by looking for the abbreviation ETS in his text.
He notes the EU is revising its climate policy, but primarily expresses surprise that “rejection of Europe” occurs at a time when there’s hope for easing restrictions. He doesn’t mention that the ETS system has stifled European industry and contributed to rising energy prices for two decades. This omission reinforces his claim about “half-truths and lies.” It’s a very real problem that needs addressing.
The Future of the EU
Will the European Union survive the next decade? Experts are not certain. In early 2026, the Atlantic Council think tank published a survey of around 400 political scientists worldwide, asking about the world in a decade. 22% predicted the EU could collapse.
This isn’t a distant prediction; a decade is a tangible timeframe for a realistic forecast.
Preparing for Potential Dissolution
This result indicates that a crisis and dissolution of the EU are plausible in the medium term for a significant number of experts. Therefore, good policy and political analysis should involve preparing for this possibility.
This includes observing factors contributing to the EU’s potential collapse and neutralizing them. Political and social processes in Poland, as described by Konrad Szymański, are consequences of these factors and can only be addressed by eliminating their root causes. This could either preserve the EU in a better state or strengthen Poland’s position in the event of its dissolution.
Szymański’s approach seems fundamentally focused on preserving the EU at all costs, without considering the dynamics that could lead to its demise. This, in my opinion, is a mistake.
