A debate fueled by a former Polish minister’s article increasingly serves political mobilization rather than a realistic analysis of EU issues.
Polexit as a Political Tool
The debate surrounding a potential Polish exit from the European Union (Polexit), ignited by an article from former PiS minister Konrad Szymański, is increasingly used for political mobilization rather than genuine analysis of EU problems.
Ignoring the tensions and weaknesses within the EU community may prove more dangerous than the discussion itself, including whether the right-wing will lead Poland to leave the EU.
Difficulties in Criticizing Szymański
Critiquing a European affairs expert like Konrad Szymański is challenging. Furthermore, the subject of his article, “On the Road to Polexit,” published in “Plus Minus” on March 14th, is sensitive, as one risks being labeled a Polexit supporter—or even a “right-wing Polexit supporter”—which can stifle discussion.
Despite this risk, it’s worth engaging, for two primary reasons. While there are more, these are the most important for this brief polemic.
Politicizing EU Membership
The first reason is political: the danger that Polish membership in the EU will be incorporated into the logic of political struggle ahead of next year’s elections. This could detach the issue from reality and allow it to take on a life of its own.
The author inadvertently contributed to this danger, as his scholarly article was published by “Plus Minus” shortly after Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted to polarize the political scene by dividing people into pro-EU and anti-EU camps, hoping to replace the division between traitors and patriots.
Tusk’s Political Calculation
Tusk likely believes this division will be politically effective, given that polls show his camp overwhelmingly opposes Polexit, while the opposition is divided (though mostly also opposed). It’s hard to deny the Prime Minister’s rationale and political acumen.
Therefore, it would be beneficial to avoid using the term “Polexit” in expert discussions, especially when involving someone like Konrad Szymański. Arguments could be co-opted by political agitators and used as weapons against opponents.
Poland’s percentage of “exit” supporters is within the European average (around 20%, sometimes nearing 30% in France), but that doesn’t mean everyone is predicting an imminent departure. It’s better to discuss real issues instead of “exit.”
Ignoring Real Problems
This leads to the second reason: the danger of dismissing the real problems that cause many societies to criticize the EU. Szymański addresses these problems, but doesn’t fully acknowledge their significance.
He mentions an “elusive emotion” differentiating approaches to established and newer EU member states, which “poisons relations and trust.” However, he doesn’t mention that the composition of the Brussels bureaucracy—nearly 80% from a few countries (Italy, Spain, Belgium, France, and Germany)—is a real source of this tension, with higher positions even less diverse.
This creates “a lack of political sensitivity in Brussels,” as the author notes, and perpetuates the issue.
Beyond Bureaucratic Composition
The composition of the EU bureaucracy is just one example of a problem that makes many—not just in Poland—feel alienated from the EU. This includes attempts to manipulate democratic processes through randomly selected groups whose opinions were presented as “the voice of the people,” a practice thankfully discontinued by the previous European Commission, but which could be revived.
Szymański’s View and the ETS System
Konrad Szymański’s assertion that “distrust of Europe” was “created with half-truths and lies” seems overly radical. Understanding his perspective requires noting his omission of the acronym ETS in his text.
He mentions the EU revising its climate policy, but primarily expresses surprise that “rejecting Europe” occurs when there’s hope for easing restrictions. He doesn’t mention that the ETS system has stifled European industry and increased energy prices for two decades—a very real problem.
The Future of the EU
Will the European Union survive the next decade? Experts are not certain. In early 2026, the Atlantic Council think tank published a survey of around 400 political scientists worldwide, asking about the world in a decade. 22% predicted the EU could collapse.
This isn’t a distant prediction; a decade is a tangible timeframe for a realistic forecast.
Preparing for Potential Dissolution
This result indicates that a crisis and dissolution of the EU are plausible for a significant group of experts. Therefore, good policy and political analysis should involve preparing for this possibility.
This includes observing and neutralizing factors contributing to the EU’s potential collapse. Political and social processes in Poland, as Szymański writes, are a consequence of these factors and can only be addressed by eliminating their root causes. This could strengthen the EU or improve Poland’s position in the event of its dissolution.
Szymański’s approach seems to prioritize preserving the EU at all costs, without considering the dynamics that could lead to its demise. This is, in my opinion, a mistake.