Polish defence analysts evaluate the army’s readiness amid ambitious expansion and modernisation programmes.
Assignment Overview
During a brief interview, experts were asked to list three strengths and three weaknesses of Poland’s weapons systems. The discussion aligns with another piece that explains why current defence development plans are deemed unrealistic by specialists.
Mariusz Cielma – Pros
Well‑defined, planned and implemented areas include a focus on air defence as a priority for years, emerging drone readiness, substantial rocket and artillery investments, and a near‑50‑thousand‑person Strengthening of the Territorial Defence Forces, which adds practical reserves for the regular army.
Mariusz Cielma – Cons
The full modernisation and expansion plan exceeds Poland’s financial and demographic capacity; it aims to double forces without mobilisation or emergency status, relying on unattainable plans. Modernisation is uneven, lagging in infantry equipment, anti‑tank systems, and protective vehicles, while innovation such as battlefield robotics remains an experiment, risking operational vulnerability.
Dawid Kamizela – Pros
The Navy is being rationally modernised with frigates Miecznik, submarines Orka, minesweepers Kormoran, and other vessels; space‑based reconnaissance is progressing through international contracts and a domestic Piast program. Air‑defence modernisation continues, driven by Ukraine’s experience, with mid‑ and short‑range coverage under way.
Dawid Kamizela – Cons
Foreign armaments are bought without sufficient local maintenance capabilities, with after‑sale support often left to the importer. R&D spending remains minimal, export support is lacking or hindered, and the planned quantitative army growth is not aligned with financial or manpower realisations, forcing reliance on compulsory service.
Andrzej Kiński – Pros
Consistent scale‑up of Rocket and Artillery forces with strong domestic industry share, accelerated by the Ukraine war. Comprehensive air‑defence, including a multi‑layer system, is being built, with plans for a counter‑drone layer, positioning Poland as a NATO leader. Private defence industry participation is growing.
Andrzej Kiński – Cons
Political influence leads to suboptimal procurement decisions, such as an excessive order of 96 AH‑64 Apache helicopters. Western supplier preference gives foreign equipment an advantage, while Polish firms face tougher certification, raising costs. Modernisation acts sporadically, triggered largely by the 2022 Russian invasion, leaving long‑term strategic cohesion lacking.
Antoni Walkowski – Pros
The rocket and artillery upgrade is significant, with large‑scale purchases and support systems like communications and UAVs. The submarine programme has been revitalised after a 27‑year pause, and the navy has gained prominence due to Baltic security considerations. Air Force equipment is modern, and new early‑warning and reconnaissance planes are planned.
Antoni Walkowski – Cons
Support infrastructure, such as ammunition production and UAV orders, lags behind demands, despite a slight recent acceleration. Defence R&D funds are scandalously low; long‑term planning is weak, with purchases made urgently and without corresponding training or maintenance frameworks.
Jarosław Wolski – Pros
The Cyber Defence Component’s command shows decisive progress, along with its communications modernisation program. The nationally built satellite reconnaissance system, ARGUS, surpasses Russia’s satellite fleet in number, with rapid expansion planned. The revival of Rocket and Artillery and submarines shows tangible progress.
Jarosław Wolski – Cons
There is insufficient protection against low‑altitude drones at battalion level; defensive development is limited to strategic stages. Domestic low‑level drone capabilities and training of personnel reserves are lacking, creating a deficit in adaptable force structure and rapid counter‑measures.