Poland’s Civic Coalition is considering a unified electoral list, inspired by the recent success of Hungary’s TISZA party, to potentially secure a constitutional majority in upcoming elections.
Inspired by TISZA’s Victory
The idea of a joint list for parties to the left of Law and Justice (PiS) has resurfaced ahead of parliamentary elections, most recently proposed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Tusk highlighted the Hungarian experience, where opposition parties uniting behind Péter Magyar’s TISZA led to a decisive victory and the potential end of Viktor Orbán’s rule.
TISZA secured a two-thirds mandate in the Hungarian parliament, enabling significant reforms. This success was achieved, in part, through other opposition groups withdrawing from the election to support Magyar’s formation.
Building a Unified List
Sources within Civic Coalition suggest Tusk’s proposal focuses on creating a unified list under the Civic Coalition banner. Dariusz Joński, a European Parliament member, stated the concept is realistic and should be considered, emphasizing the potential to achieve a two-thirds parliamentary majority and overcome presidential vetoes.
Polling Data and Potential Outcomes
Polls examining various scenarios for the ruling coalition’s performance in next year’s elections are inconclusive regarding a constitutional majority. A poll from October 2023 indicated a joint list of Civic Coalition, The Left, Poland 2050, and PSL could garner 46.7% of the vote and 235 seats in the Sejm.
However, separate polling from December 2023 showed that even a joint list might not guarantee maintaining power, with right-wing parties potentially securing a majority. Smaller parties in both scenarios struggled to surpass the electoral threshold.
Skepticism Among Coalition Partners
Some within the coalition express skepticism, citing unfavorable polling data. Tomasz Trela, a deputy leader of New Left, emphasized the need for each party to prepare for an independent run while remaining open to various scenarios, cautioning against directly replicating the Hungarian situation in Poland.
Trela recalled the 2019 European Parliament election, where a broad coalition, despite a good result, was ultimately defeated by Law and Justice, highlighting the risk of failing to secure enough seats even with a unified list.
Alternative Scenarios and Party Positions
Mirosław Suchoń, head of the Centre Club (formed by former Poland 2050 members), indicated his formation is considering a unified list but also exploring a strategy of three blocs: a centrist bloc, a left-wing bloc, and Civic Coalition.
Both the Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Poland 2050 firmly reject the idea of a joint list. PSL leader Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz argued that a single list leads to stagnation, while Kamil Wnuk stated they will not join Civic Coalition or run on its lists.
Potential Collaborations and Future Decisions
There is speculation about a potential joint effort between Poland 2050 and the Razem party. The PSL is preparing for an independent run but remains open to cooperation with like-minded groups. Recent discussions with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, if he were excluded from PiS, have also been reported.
Civic Coalition believes a joint list involving New Left and Centre is likely, potentially allowing Razem and Poland 2050 to cross the electoral threshold, offering a path to forming a government and avoiding potential negotiations with the Confederation.
