Poland’s retail sales at constant prices rose 4.4% year-on-year in January 2026, exceeding analyst expectations of just over 3%.
Retail Sales Performance
According to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales at constant prices were 4.4% higher in January 2026 compared to the same period last year. This performance exceeded analysts’ forecasts, who had predicted growth of just over 3%.
Seasonally adjusted data showed an even stronger growth of 5.1% year-on-year and a 0.5% increase from December 2025. However, without seasonal adjustment, January’s retail sales were nearly 18% lower than the previous year, as January is typically the weakest month for retail compared to December, which is the strongest.
Notable Category Growth
The standout performer in retail was the clothing and footwear category, which experienced a remarkable 17.6% increase. This surge was noted as surprising, especially considering it was winter, which typically sees lower demand for seasonal clothing.
Economic Outlook
Economists from ING Śląski Bank evaluated that consumption continues to be a driver of economic growth, though they expect Q1 2026 to be weaker than Q4 2025. They forecast GDP growth will be below 4%, citing weaker performance in industry and construction as the primary reasons.
In January, both the industrial and construction sectors reported sales that were lower than in the previous year, contributing to the expected economic slowdown.
