A new Pollster Institute survey reveals a surge in support for Poland’s Civic Coalition, potentially reshaping the parliamentary landscape as smaller coalition partners struggle.
Historical Record for Civic Coalition
The Civic Coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has achieved a record-breaking 35.75% support, a 1.5 percentage point increase from late February. This marks an unprecedented result in the Institute Pollster’s research history.
The party has not only solidified its leadership position but has also significantly distanced itself from its main rival.
Weakening Position of Law and Justice
Conversely, Law and Justice (PiS) experienced a decline in support, falling from 28.45% to 27.28%. This downward trend, combined with the growth of the Civic Coalition, makes it increasingly difficult for PiS to close the gap in the short term.
Konfederacja Gains Ground, Braun’s Faction Surges
Konfederacja is solidifying its position as the third-largest political force in Poland, gaining nearly 1 percentage point to reach 12%. Within the bloc, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, led by Grzegorz Braun, is demonstrating significant momentum.
With 7.04% support, Braun’s faction has surpassed The New Left, becoming the fourth-strongest entity in the ranking despite a slight month-on-month decrease.
Crisis Within The Left
The New Left experienced the largest decline in voter support over the past month, losing 1.72 percentage points and now garnering the confidence of only 5.97% of respondents. This substantial drop puts The Left in a difficult position ahead of upcoming election cycles, pushing it to the bottom of the list of parties likely to participate in the distribution of mandates.
Third Way Falls Below Electoral Threshold
The survey revealed a concerning situation for the parties forming the Third Way coalition. While the Polish People’s Party (PSL) improved its ratings by 0.64 percentage points, the resulting 3.86% is insufficient for independent entry into the Sejm.
The situation is even more challenging for Poland 2050, which, under the leadership of Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, experienced a drastic decline to 1.75% (a loss of 0.86 percentage points).
Other Parties Outside Parliament
The Partia Razem would also remain outside the Sejm, supported by 4.72% of respondents. Other committees collectively could count on 1.63% of the votes.
The survey was conducted on March 2-3 using the CAWI method on a representative group of 1011 adult Poles. The results indicate that if elections were held this Sunday, only four parliamentary parties and one smaller coalition party would be represented in the Sejm. Despite the record results of the leader, the overall balance of the ruling camp remains relatively stable, fluctuating around 47.33% (down from 47.77% in February).