As PiS prepares to unveil a new prime minister candidate and CO holds internal elections, both parties face vastly different paths forward.
Controversial Prime Minister Candidate
Next Saturday in Kraków’s Sokół Hall, Law and Justice (PiS) will present the name of the person who would take up the prime minister’s post next year. The day after, the Civic Coalition (KO) will hold leadership elections for party leader and heads of structures in regions and districts.
The situation in both parties is extremely different. KO, after more than three years of ruling in a difficult coalition, has been a leader in polls and still has a chance to maintain power in 2027. Meanwhile, internally conflicted PiS is constantly sinking in polls, and both Confederations are growing on its weaknesses.
Who Will Kaczyński Bet On?
The chance to improve ratings was supposed to be the presentation of a candidate for the next prime minister – a person who would become a new, young and attractive face of PiS. But President Kaczyński threw an enigmatic hint on Radio Maryja, triggering speculation that the candidate would not be Mateusz Morawiecki, which displeased his supporters in the party.
Internal competition suggests the choice might be someone from the so-called ‘librarians’ or ‘masons’ faction, i.e., Przemysław Czarnek, Patryk Jakí or Tobiasz Bocheński. While the former head of the Ministry of Education would still be acceptable to Morawiecki, candidacies of both MEPs would be perceived as a slap in the face for the former prime minister.
A PiS politician well-versed in party affairs suggests looking among Czarnek, Lucjusz Nadbereżny (nicknamed “Lucek”), or Zbigniew Bogucki. Both Nadbereżny and Bogucki could, at least for some time, reconcile the feuding factions in the party.
Divided Strategies in PiS
Two completely contradictory concepts on how to compete can be heard in PiS. The environment grouped around Czarnek, Jakí and Bocheński is pushing for a hard right course, while Morawiecki and his supporters would prefer to move towards the center to seek support among moderate voters.
President Kaczyński seems to support the first vision, hence the hard opposition to the EU’s defense program SAFE. The atmosphere in PiS is not improved by last week’s decisions to initiate disciplinary proceedings for a public quarrel on X among a group of MPs, including former Prime Minister Morawiecki’s supporters and MEP Jakí.
Tusk Without Competition
The opposite situation is in the Civic Coalition, where internal disputes have almost completely died out. Donald Tusk has an undisputed position and the only question is whether in Sunday’s elections for chairman, as the only candidate, he will get 100 percent support or less.
The good atmosphere in KO is favored by high support in polls (over 30 percent, usually about 10 percentage points more than PiS). While factions exist in the party, a decisive majority is now playing for Tusk as the one who gives a chance for electoral success in next year’s parliamentary elections.
Calm Regional Elections in KO
Civic Coalition activists will also elect their regional leaders on Sunday. In most voivodeships, only one candidate has registered, while in six, internal competition has been going on for several weeks. The most interesting races are in Lower Silesia and Greater Poland.
Both Deputy Minister of Development and Technology Michał Jaros and Deputy Jarosław Urbaniak face challenges from Monika Wielichowska and Marcin Bosacki respectively. However, unlike in PiS, the competition is proceeding calmly without mutual attacks or quarrels on X.
Survival at Stake for PiS
For Law and Justice, the stakes for the upcoming weekend are much more serious, as the game is not only about presenting a new face that will allow the party to move forward, but about its survival in its current form.
Mateusz Morawiecki’s environment has long been signaling that it is ready to leave if its leader continues to be marginalized in PiS, which would fundamentally change Poland’s political landscape.