A new IBRiS poll on 24‑25 October shows the Civic Coalition rising to 30.4 % support, Law and Justice falling to 27.6 %, and two Confederation parties gaining parliamentary seats.
Civic Coalition Leads, PiS Declines
According to an IBRiS survey conducted on 24‑25 October, the Civic Coalition (KO) secured 30.4 % of voter support, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. Support for Law and Justice (PiS) fell to 27.6 %, a decline of 0.5 percentage points, leaving the two parties almost evenly matched in the latest poll.
The rise in KO’s ratings coincided with the formal merger of Civic Platform, Modern, and Polish Initiative into a single entity – the Civic Coalition – which now presents a unified front in the upcoming elections.
Confederation Tones Up
Confederation topped the poll in third place with 15 % support, an increase of 1.6 percentage points. The Confederation of the Polish Crown also earned 5.5 % of voter backing and would therefore qualify for seats in the Sejm.
Election Thresholds and Party Play
New Left crossed the electoral threshold with 6.7 % of support. In contrast, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) polled at 4.1 %, while Together and Poland 2050 garnered 4 % and 1.3 % respectively, falling short of entry. Undecided voters accounted for 5.4 % of respondents, and the declared voter turnout is 54.8 %.
Kaczyński Struggles to Break Ranks
IBRiS president Marcin Duma noted that though Donald Tusk’s government faces challenges in delivering on promises, it has not lost support. The paradox, according to Duma in an interview with “Rzeczpospolita”, is that Jarosław Kaczyński has been attempting for over a quarter of a year to extricate himself from the hold of Brauna and the Confederation, yet remains unable to establish a stable position.
Duma added that issues once mobilizing PiS voters, such as migration, are losing influence today, as evidenced by the weak response to the party’s latest demonstration.