A new poll reveals that Poland’s ruling coalition would fall short of a parliamentary majority if Civic Coalition, PSL, and Poland 2050 ran separately from New Left.
Poll Examines Support for Joint Lists
A poll by OGB examined how support would be distributed in parliamentary elections if two separate joint lists were created: one with Civic Coalition, PSL, and Poland 2050, and another with New Left and Razem Party.
Under this scenario, KO, PSL, and PL2050 would receive 40.87% of votes, PiS would get 28%, and Confederation would receive 12.81%. Confederation of the Polish Crown would get 10.27%, while the New Left and Razem coalition would get 8.05%.
Ruling Coalition Short of Majority
In terms of Sejm seats, KO, PSL, and PL2050 would get 205 seats, PiS would get 137, Confederation would get 52, Confederation of the Polish Crown would get 44, and New Left and Razem would get 22.
This means the current ruling coalition would have 227 seats, which is 4 short of a majority. It’s worth noting that Razem is not part of the coalition, though this poll doesn’t specify how many of the 22 New Left and Razem seats would belong to each party.
Previous Poll Shows Different Results
The day before, OGB published results examining each group separately. In that poll, KO got 39.04%, PiS got 28.47%, Confederation got 12.25%, and Confederation of the Polish Crown got 9.64%. Other parties were below the electoral threshold.
With those results, KO would get 215 seats, PiS would get 149, Confederation would get 55, and Confederation of the Polish Crown would get 41. This means that joint lists for the ruling coalition would only increase their total seats by 12.
2023 Election Results
In the 2023 parliamentary elections, PiS got 35.38% of the vote, Civic Coalition got 30.7%, The Third Way (coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL) got 14.4%, Left got 8.61%, and Confederation got 7.16%.
In terms of seats, PiS got 194, KO got 157, The Third Way got 65, Left got 26, and Confederation got 18.