New IBRiS poll shows Polish Peasant Party surprising comeback while ruling PiS drops significantly.
KO Leads, PiS Drops Sharply
The latest IBRiS poll conducted for “Rzeczpospolita” shows that Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) could count on 31.4% support. This is the best result in the comparison and also a 1 percentage point increase compared to the previous survey of this institute.
In second place is Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) with a result of 23.3%, which represents a significant decrease compared to November, when the party of Jarosław Kaczyński had 27.1%.
Parties on Parliamentary Edge
Third place is taken by Konfederacja, which 12.6% of respondents want to vote for. This is also a worse result than two months earlier, when it was 16.1%. Meanwhile, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej of Grzegorz Braun is clearly growing, achieving 9% support.
Lewica notes a small increase and can count on 8.1% of the vote.
PSL’s Surprising Comeback
Part Razem and Polska 2050 would fall out of parliament. Part Razem would have 3.6% and Polska 2050, which is now supported by only 1.7% of respondents. This continues the poor ratings of the party, which in recent weeks has seen numerous conflicts over leadership.
The biggest surprise of the survey is the result of Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL). PSL received 5.4% support, which means a 2.2 percentage point increase and entry to the Sejm after a series of polls in which the party was balancing on the threshold.
Parliamentary Seat Deadlock
With such a distribution of votes, there would be an unprecedented situation in the Sejm. The combined support for governing parties exceeding the electoral threshold – Koalicji Obywatelskiej, Lewicy and PSL – amounts to 44.9%. Exactly the same is achieved by the opposition parties: PiS, Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej.
This translates into a perfect tie in seats: 230 seats for each side. Koalicja Obywatelska could count on 183 seats, Lewica on 32, and PSL on 15. Meanwhile, PiS would get 131 seats, Konfederacja 61, and Konfederacja Korony Polskie 38.
Voter Turnout and Undecided Voters
57.1% of respondents declare they will participate in the elections. A definite participation is announced by 39.3% of respondents, and another 17.8% answer “rather yes.” A total of 39% of respondents have the opposite opinion, and 3.9% have no opinion on this matter.
The IBRiS poll was conducted on January 30-31, 2026 using the CATI method on a sample of 1067 people.