According to a new IBRiS poll, the Civic Coalition leads with 31.8% support but falls short of forming a government alone, while PiS trails with 24.2%.
IBRiS Poll: KO Leads but Struggles to Form Government
In a hypothetical election held next Sunday, 61.3% of respondents would vote, with 44% definitely and 17.3% probably casting their ballots. According to the IBRiS poll commissioned by Onet, the Civic Coalition leads with 31.8% support, followed by Law and Justice with 24.2%, and Confederation with 14.2%. Other parties include Confederation of the Polish Crown (8%), Left (6.9%), Polish People’s Party (4.6%), Razem (2.1%), and Poland 2050 (0.9%), with 7.3% undecided.
The poll projects 180 seats for KO (23 more than currently), 144 for PiS (50 fewer than currently), 78 for Confederation (60 more), 37 for Confederation of the Polish Crown, and 21 for Left (5 fewer). Even with the Left, KO would only have 201 seats, falling short of the 231 needed for a majority. Similarly, PiS with Confederation would have 222 seats, requiring Confederation of the Polish Crown to reach a 259-seat majority.
Opinia24 Poll: Declining Support for Confederation
The Opinia24 poll for “Fakty” TVN and TVN24 shows KO leading with 34.5% (up 0.3 percentage points), PiS at 23.9% (up 1.9), Confederation at 11.6% (down 2.9), and Confederation of the Polish Crown at 7.1% (down 0.1). Left is slightly above the threshold at 5.1% (down 1), with other parties below: Razem (4.6%, up 0.5), PSL (2.4%, down 0.6), and Poland 2050 (1.8%, up 0.3).
The poll was conducted via telephone and internet interviews with a representative sample of 1,002 Polish residents aged 18 and over on March 11-12, 2026.
Gazeta.pl Poll: PiS Unlikely to Govern Independently
A Gazeta.pl poll asked if PiS has a chance at independent governance, with 88.32% responding no, 8.46% saying yes, and 3.22% finding it hard to predict. Over 3,200 votes were cast in this poll conducted on March 10.
An extraordinary session of the Council of Ministers is scheduled for 9 AM to respond to Nawrocki’s decision. The Sejm is currently in session.
