Following Armenia’s strengthened ties with the European Union, Russia and its EAEU partners have threatened to suspend Yerevan’s membership, prompting Moscow to recall its ambassador for urgent consultations.
Russia Issues Ultimatum to Armenia
On May 29, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan threatened to suspend Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). When asked about the consequences of such a move, Vladimir Putin referenced the conflict in Ukraine, noting that it began with efforts to join the EU.
The Russian leader warned that expulsion from the EAEU would strip Armenia of duty-free trade, cost-effective energy pricing, and simplified labor access for its citizens in Russia.
Moscow Recalls Ambassador
The following day, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned its ambassador to Armenia, Sergey Kopyrkin. A statement confirmed he was recalled for consultations regarding Armenia’s recent steps to deepen cooperation with the European Union, which Moscow claims undermines the EAEU framework.
Armenia Pivots Toward the EU
European Council President António Costa, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Yerevan on May 4-5. Costa emphasized the EU’s commitment to deepening relations with Armenia, a move analysts suggest is aimed at reducing Russian influence in the South Caucasus.
The EAEU as a Geopolitical Tool
The Eurasian Economic Union, established in 2015, includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. While formally intended to boost regional economic growth, the Center for Eastern Studies notes that the bloc primarily serves as a mechanism for Kremlin control and a barrier against Western integration.
Armenia joined the EAEU in 2015, abandoning an association agreement with the EU. In 2017, a more limited partnership deal was signed, though it lacks the depth of the originally planned free trade zone.
Strained Relations with the Kremlin
Tensions between Armenia and Russia escalated in September 2022 after Azerbaijan attacked Armenian territory. Following the failure of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to provide assistance, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially froze Armenia’s participation in the alliance.
