Russia has lost its influence in the Middle East and Africa, shifting from strategic military operations to mercenary contracts as its war in Ukraine drains resources.
From Playing the Game to Losing the Board
Russia entered the Syrian civil war in 2015 to counter the fall of Bashar al‑Assad, basing its forces in Tartus and deploying aircraft to bomb both ISIL and Syrian opposition units. The strategy aimed to maintain a foothold on the Mediterranean and counter Western influence.
Initially, Russian air power handed the war to Moscow, supporting Assad and simultaneously clashing with Turkish forces, who shot down a Russian bomber and later entered the Turkish border zone with a joint patrol. Russia also struck U.S. forces, shooting down Israeli jets over Syria and disabling American drones.
Syria: From Dominance to Downtime
Roughly 30,000 Russian troops have fought in Syria, conducting at least 28,000 air strikes and naval bombardments. The regime’s expansion was halted by the 2022 defeat of the Ukraine invasion, which forced Moscow to reallocate supplies and manpower.
Today, Russia holds only air and naval bases in Syria and no longer wields decisive influence, though it continues to protect Bashar al‑Assad’s personal interests there.
Africa: Palatial Guard and Tuareg Traps
Following losses in Syria, Russia turned to Africa, supporting General Haftar in Libya and leveraging naval and air bases to expand into the Sahel. Its forces operate in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, protecting elites and securing mineral exports.
Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group and the newly formed African Corps escort convoys and defend de‑facto governors, yet they have suffered major setbacks, including ambushes that killed scores of troops in 2024 and 2025.
Soldiers for Hire, Not Policy Makers
Russia’s diminished diplomatic clout has shifted its role from shaping policy to supply mercenary services. The country now relies on outsourced fighters instead of direct intervention, a strategy that has lost prestige and effectiveness.
Past, Present, and Future of Assad
Assad remains under Russian protection, enjoying exclusive favors from Moscow while his regime is largely politically irrelevant. Moscow retains Syrian bases and could leverage a minimal policy buffer should regional tensions rise again.
