Experts warn that Rumen Radev’s election win in Bulgaria may diminish Sofia’s support for Ukraine’s war effort.
Radew’s Win and Potential Impact on Ukraine Support
The victory of Rumen Radev in the Bulgarian elections could weaken Sofia’s commitment to assisting Ukraine, according to assessments by Spasimir Domaradzki. Bulgaria serves as a crucial supply source for spare parts for Ukraine’s Soviet-era military equipment, which Kyiv is attempting to phase out.
Balkan Insight reported last week that Radev’s “political project” is likely to consolidate pro-Russian and nationalist voters. A MarketLinks poll indicates 26.5% of respondents intend to vote for Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria in the April 19th parliamentary elections, while a Sova Harris poll suggests support could reach 30.9%.
Radew’s Historically Pro-Russian Stance
Spasimir Domaradzki, head of the Central and Southeastern Europe Team at the Institute of Central Europe and a lecturer at the University of Warsaw, emphasized that Radev has consistently pursued a policy indicating a more lenient stance towards Russia despite Bulgaria’s pro-Western alignment.
This stance is expected to be evident if Radev assumes the position of prime minister, potentially leading to reduced engagement in areas where Bulgaria provides value to Ukraine’s efforts.
A Cautious Pro-Russian Course
However, Domaradzki suggests the impact will likely be more of an inconvenience than a drastic shift. Radev’s past behavior indicates a cautious approach to his pro-Russian leanings, avoiding direct confrontation with Western partners.
Bulgaria’s Key Areas of Support for Ukraine
Bulgaria’s primary contributions to Ukraine include demining shipping lanes in the Black Sea, facilitating Ukrainian grain exports, and providing spare parts for Soviet-era military equipment.
Despite controversies similar to those in Poland, the transit of Ukrainian grain is not expected to be affected by the election results, as the primary route passes through Romania.
Challenges with Soviet-Era Equipment
Damian Ratka, a defense expert specializing in armored vehicles from the former USSR, noted the increasing difficulties Kyiv faces with Soviet-era equipment. The ability to produce spare parts for this equipment has largely disappeared in countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia since the end of the Cold War.
Ukraine is actively phasing out this equipment, transitioning to NATO systems for artillery and other weaponry, relying on supplies from Western Europe and the United States. Ratka believes that any reduction in Bulgarian assistance will not critically jeopardize Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Bulgaria as a Supplier of Spare Parts
Bulgaria remains a significant supplier of ammunition and spare parts for Soviet-era artillery and missile systems used by Ukraine, utilizing its own arms manufacturers like VMZ Sopot and Arsenal in Kazanłyk. Sofia primarily provides scarce 122mm and 152mm projectiles, Grad rocket launcher ammunition, and mortar and grenade launcher components.
Additionally, Bulgaria has provided Goździk howitzers and over 100 BTR-60 armored personnel carriers, as well as components for air defense systems, including S-300 missile parts used as spare parts or for refurbishment.
Black Sea Demining Efforts
Alongside Turkey and Romania, Bulgaria co-creates a trilateral task force to neutralize drifting sea mines in the Black Sea. Bulgarian naval units, including minesweepers and trawlers, regularly participate in rotational missions to clear territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. Bulgaria held the rotating command of the entire group in the first half of 2024.