Łukasz Pawłowski, head of OGB, presents three scenarios for the 15 October coalition to maintain power despite strong right-wing support.
Coalition Scenarios for Maintaining Power
Łukasz Pawłowski, head of Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, refutes claims of the coalition’s defeat. He outlines three scenarios to retain power after upcoming elections. The first involves a unified list for the entire 15 October coalition, excluding Razem, polling at 46% with 236 seats. The second scenario splits the coalition into two blocks: KO with Polska 2050 and PSL versus New Left with Razem. The third is KO running alone, risking a 15-seat shortfall.
Pawłowski deems the two-block scenario most optimal, noting the governing bloc is four seats short of a majority, which could be secured from other parties.
Challenges with New Left and Smaller Parties
Historically, KO has been reluctant to form a joint list with New Left, whose worldviews are closer to PSL or Polska 2050. A separate New Left-Razem run risks both failing to clear the threshold; together, they could reach 8%. However, a joint list guarantees parliamentary entry. PSL, despite its diminished presence, is likely to join KO lists.
Role of Grzegorz Braun and Fear Tactics
Grzegorz Braun’s potential coalition with PiS is used as a fear tactic by KO to mobilize liberal voters. Jarosław Kaczyński’s denial of such a partnership is seen as part of this emotional game. Conversely, the coalition’s unfulfilled promises fuel negative perceptions, complicating voter mobilization.
Voter Emotions and Election Dynamics
The 2027 election outcome hinges on voter emotions: either discontent with the government or fear of Braun. High turnout in 2023 may not repeat, reducing the coalition’s support base. PiS’s strategy involves creating a young alternative to counter Braun’s radicalism, potentially reshaping the right-wing landscape.
Long-Term Outlook for PiS and Coalition
PiS faces challenges as Kaczyński loses his monopoly on defining right-wing politics due to Confederation and Braun’s influence. The coalition’s path depends on maintaining unity and addressing voter skepticism. A new formation, akin to Third Way, could alter seat distribution but remains unlikely without a charismatic leader.