On February 28, the US and Israel conducted strikes in Iran, killing top leaders; IRGC retaliated, and analyst Zineb Riboua warned of direct threats from dispersed commanders.
Unprecedented Geographical Expansion
On Saturday, February 28, the US and Israel carried out attacks in Iran. As a result, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Pakpour, and influential security advisor Ali Shamkhani were killed. The IRGC subsequently launched attacks on Israel, US bases, and territories in the Persian Gulf region.
According to Zineb Riboua, an analyst at the American think tank Hudson Institute, this is an “unprecedented geographical expansion” of Iranian military actions. She stated that directly threatened are dispersed Iranian military commanders “acting without centralized leadership and making increasingly desperate decisions.”
Revenge Campaign Without Strategy
“Without a strategy, the revenge campaign turns into spasms,” Riboua argued. “The only saving grace is that decapitating the country’s leadership worsens the long-term capabilities. The IRGC can carry out operations it planned, but without a coordinated strategy from Khamenei, Shamkhani, and Pakpour, the revenge campaign turns into spasms, not a coherent operation,” she explained.
She assessed that the serious risk of escalation will last for the next 72-96 hours, after which it will significantly weaken.
Impact on Russia
The expert noted that by launching “Operation Epic Fury,” US President Donald Trump demonstrated he can use overwhelming military force to destroy regimes he considers hostile “without diplomatic preliminaries and lengthy negotiations.”
Asked about Russia and the war in Ukraine, Riboua stated that “Moscow built its strategy towards Ukraine based on the assumption that Trump’s transactional instincts mean America is withdrawing from global confrontation.” “Saturday evening showed the opposite,” she observed. “If Trump is willing in one evening to deprive Iran of its entire leadership structure, then the presumed impact of this situation on Russia’s position in Ukraine is enormous,” she continued.
Message to Moscow
“The message to the Kremlin is simple: reach an agreement on terms Trump finds acceptable, or you will experience what US capability for precise attacks on assets you cannot afford to lose looks like,” the expert emphasized.
China’s Hidden Argument
Regarding China, she noted that “Beijing’s hidden argument, directed at each of its authoritarian clients, is that an alliance with China protects regimes from American coercion.” “Iran was the flagship example of this. And the flagship vessel has just sunk,” Riboua stated. “Every government buying Chinese security infrastructure, from Central Asia to Africa, was watching the same scenes on Saturday evening,” she summarized.
