Russia has reportedly moved new units to NATO-border zones as part of a ‘phase zero’ preparation for war, a move that has raised alarms among NATO officials and media across Europe.
Russia’s ‘Phase Zero’: Mobilizing Forces Along NATO Borders
According to German newspaper Die Welt, Russia is preparing for war with NATO, as evidenced by the transfer of new units to border areas. After a week or two of training, these forces would be sent into Ukraine, but would ultimately return, says head of intelligence Kaupo Rosin.
US ISW Labels ‘Phase Zero’ and Warns of Potential Escalation
The U.S. Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia entered the first stage of preparation—phase zero—alongside increased cyberattacks, disinformation, arson, and drone incursions into airspace. Experts suggest a new escalation phase could involve confrontation with NATO. Mark Rutte said all should be deeply concerned, while the NATO commander noted there is no immediate threat.
Poland Seizes Russian Il‑20 Reconnaissance Plane
On 30 October, the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command announced that a Russian Il‑20 was intercepted over the Baltic Sea. Flying without a flight plan and with its transponder off, the aircraft was identified and escorted out of the area; no Polish airspace was breached.