A French air force general suggests Russia could test NATO’s readiness between 2028 and 2029, coinciding with a US administration change and Russian military recovery.
Russia May Test NATO
A French military official indicated Russia may test NATO’s response capabilities when the United States is considering or undertaking actions outside of Europe.
The official suggested this could occur between 2028 and 2029, during a US presidential transition, as Russia rebuilds its forces following the conflict in Ukraine.
Conflict Intensifies Demand for Ammunition
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East demonstrates the high consumption of munitions in modern warfare, according to the general.
The French army must prioritize building up ammunition reserves in preparation for a potential high-intensity conflict.
Baltic states lack fighter aircraft, meaning Western air forces would be “on the front line of the eastern flank” in the event of a crisis.
France’s Role in Ukraine Security Guarantees
France would be responsible for the “air component” of potential security guarantees for Ukraine offered by a “coalition of the willing” following a ceasefire.
France Seeks Cost Reduction
France has deployed assets from its bases in the Middle East in accordance with agreements with regional partners.
French Rafale fighter jets have intercepted Iranian drones when necessary, supported by SAMPT/T air defense systems and logistical resources, described as defensive actions.
Rafale Effectiveness and Drone Warfare
While effective, the Rafale is not the most efficient platform for combating drones, prompting the French military to explore cost reduction measures.
The high cost of MICA missiles used by the Rafale is a concern, leading to research into “killer drones” – drones designed to counter other drones.
