Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob failed to form a coalition government, potentially opening the door for a fourth term for pro-Trump politician Janez Janša.
Slovenia Faces Political Impasse
Prime Minister Robert Golob announced Monday he was unable to secure a coalition necessary to form a new government. This development creates an opportunity for Janez Janša, a politician aligned with Donald Trump, to regain power.
Golob stated his party would transition to the opposition, predicting any right-wing “coalition of deceivers” formed by his rivals would be short-lived.
Golob’s Government and Janša’s Potential Return
Golob assumed office in June 2022, leading a cabinet including the Social Democrats (SD) and the Left. His government’s collapse raises the possibility of Janez Janša, a three-time former Prime Minister, returning to power.
Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) secured 28 seats in the March elections, one fewer than Golob’s Movement for Freedom (GS). A majority of 46 seats out of 90 is required to govern.
Janša’s Stance and Potential Coalitions
Janša has expressed no immediate eagerness to take power, stating he did not initiate coalition negotiations and does not view remaining in opposition as a setback. He affirmed his party is prepared to assume responsibility or face early elections.
He believes any outcome is acceptable, questioning which would be best for Slovenia, and suggested Golob may welcome passing the country’s financial problems to another administration.
Behind-the-Scenes Maneuvering
Unofficial reports indicate Janša has already begun exploring coalition options, potentially collaborating with the New Slovenia (NSi) and the Democrats, a party founded by a former SDS member, Anže Logar. Proposals reportedly include a preliminary division of ministerial portfolios.
Potential Support from Anti-Vaccine Party
A coalition of SDS, NSi, and Democrats would hold 43 seats, falling short of a majority. However, they might secure support from the five representatives of Resni.ca (Truth), a populist and anti-vaccine party, without formally including them in the government.
Strategic Alliance and Referendum Plans
In early April, Janša and Vrtovec’s parties supported the election of Zoran Stevanović of Resni.ca as Speaker of the National Assembly. Experts suggest this may have been a foundation for future cooperation.
Stevanović, previously opposed to closer ties with both SDS and GS, has announced plans for a referendum on Slovenia’s NATO membership and a visit to Moscow.
Alternative Candidates Considered
During discussions with the President, the possibility of nominating a non-partisan candidate for Prime Minister was raised, with Jernej Vrtovec and Matjaž Han of the SD mentioned as potential options.
Janša’s Political Alignment
Janša, a fixture in Slovenian politics since the late 1980s, is known as a strong admirer of Donald Trump and a close ally of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. However, unlike Orbán, Janša has unequivocally supported Ukraine and visited Kyiv after the start of the full-scale war.
Despite being labeled as skeptical of European integration, SDS remains within the EU mainstream as part of the European People’s Party.
Timeline for Government Formation
President Pirc Musar has until May 10th to nominate a Prime Minister. If rejected by the National Assembly, the President and parliamentary groups can submit further proposals. Failure to form a government will lead to parliamentary dissolution.