Polish meteorologists warn that snow may begin as early as mid‑November in northern and eastern regions, with a severe cold front sweeping the country immediately thereafter.
Golden Autumn is Ending
Early November will still bring mild, clear weather, but after November 10 the southern European cyclonic area will give way to cooler northern air masses.
A high‑pressure system over Scandinavia and Russia will push Arctic air toward Poland, making nights frosty and daytime temperatures barely above freezing. Golden autumn with fog and sunshine will give way to clouds and more frequent frosts.
Snow Getting Closer to Poland
Models predict that as early as mid‑November—around the 12th‑13th—first snowfall and snow‑mixed rain could appear in northern and eastern regions.
The American GFS model indicates that a high‑pressure system from Russia will bring cold air to Poland, while moisture from the south and east will also arrive, creating favorable mixed precipitation conditions.
Initial snow cover may persist briefly, signalling the winter’s onset, primarily affecting the Mazury, Podlaskie, and Lublin areas, but it could soon spread to central Poland.
Polar Vortex and Arctic Air Masses
This year the polar vortex, already weakening since September, is allowing cold air to descend to lower latitudes, including central Europe.
Meteorologists note the vortex core is warmer than usual, causing strong atmospheric circulation disruptions.
The result is a higher risk of sudden cold snaps and cold waves already in November.
Winter Scenario Becoming More Realistic
If the current forecasts hold, the second half of November will deliver more frequent sub‑zero temperatures and extensive wet snowfalls.
In eastern and northern regions this may last several days, a trend expected to intensify in December.
A weak polar vortex could make this winter longer and colder than recent years, with frequent snowstorms and prolonged cold spells.
Warmth Will Not Return
NOAA and ECMWF data show November in Poland will be cooler than normal, with temperatures rarely exceeding 10 °C.
Warm air masses from the south that brought up to 20 °C early in the month will be replaced by stable northern circulation.
Thus warm autumn will soon fade, and many regions may see first snowfall within a few days.
