On Dec. 12 2015, COP21 in France adopted the Paris Agreement, setting a global target to limit warming that has spurred advances and faced setbacks over the last decade.
What Is the Paris Agreement?
Approved by almost 200 countries, including Poland, the agreement committed signatories to keep global temperature rise well below 2 °C, aiming for 1.5 °C. Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło ratified the pact a few months later.
The agreement built on earlier UN climate work and introduced the first legally binding limits on temperature increase, forming the basis for subsequent national climate policies.
Record Levels of CO₂ Emissions
Since 2015 CO₂ concentrations rose from 400 ppm to 425 ppm in 2024, far exceeding the pre‑industrial 280 ppm baseline and the 1990 level of 354 ppm.
Scientific reports show that a 1.5 °C warming is “moderately safe”; however, the current trajectory risks surpassing this threshold, with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.
Approaching the 1.5‑°C Ceiling
At the pace of current emissions, 2024 became the first single year with average temperatures more than 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels. The long‑term average could cross the 1.5 °C mark by 2030 if trends persist.
Renewable Energy Revolution
For the first time ever, renewable power outproduced coal‑based generation, and the EU now generates more electricity from renewables than from all fossil sources combined.
In Poland, coal’s share of electricity fell from 85 % in 2015 to roughly 50 % by 2025, while solar panel prices dropped 90 % over the decade.
Battery storage costs fell from $1,500 per kWh in 2015 to about $125, enabling cheaper integration of intermittent renewables.
Looking Ahead
Without the Paris framework, models predicted a 3.6 °C rise by 2100. Current commitments could keep warming to 2.6 °C, still disastrous, but better than a decade ago.
Achieving the 2030 goals of tripling renewable capacity and cutting methane could limit warming to about 1.7 °C, provided plans are kept on track.
Every 0.1 °C of additional warming translates into more frequent and severe heatwaves—57 extra hot days at 2.6 °C and 114 at 4 °C—heightening global health risks.
Is the Agreement Working?
Global emissions previously projected to rise 20–48 % by 2035 now face an expected 12 % reduction on the same horizon, a shift largely attributed to the Paris pact’s influence on national policies.
The IDDRI report points to new climate bodies, market mechanisms, and a shift in public perception as pivotal factors stemming from the agreement.