A new poll shows only four parties would clear the electoral threshold if elections were held this Sunday, with three major groups excluded.
Opinia24 Poll Results
If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, the Civic Coalition would lead with 30.9% of votes (down 1.9 percentage points from December). Law and Justice (PiS) would place second with 25.8% (up 0.4 pp), followed by Confederation with 12.8% (up 2.1 pp).
Parties Below Electoral Threshold
According to this poll, only two other parties would enter parliament: Grzegorz Braun’s Polish Crown Confederation (7.4%, down 1.2 pp) and New Left (7.1%, up 2.2 pp). Parties failing to clear the 5% threshold include Poland 2050 (4%, up 1.9 pp), Polish People’s Party (PSL) (3.3%, up 0.7 pp), and Together Party (2.7%, down 0.8 pp).
The poll, conducted by Opinia24 on January 12-14 among 1,001 representative Polish adults using CATI and CAWI methods, also found 0.8% chose “other party” and 5.2% were undecided (down 0.4 pp).
United Surveys Poll Findings
A separate poll by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska (conducted January 2-4) also showed the Civic Coalition leading with 30.9% (down 0.6 pp). PiS received 25.9% (up 0.8 pp), and Confederation 11.2% (down 0.9 pp). Parties entering parliament would include Polish Crown Confederation (9.7%, up 1.6 pp) and New Left (8.2%, up 1.0 pp).
Parties below the threshold in this survey were Together Party (4.4%, up 2.0 pp), PSL (3.2%, down 1.7 pp), and Poland 2050 (2.0%, up 1.0 pp). The undecided percentage was 4.5% (down 3.2 pp). This poll also used CATI and CAWI.