Washington Post reveals National Intelligence Council report questioning Trump’s Iran strategy completed a week before proposed war.
Intelligence Reveals: Changes in Iran Will Not Be Easy
The National Intelligence Council USA (NIC) consists of experienced analysts who issue classified opinions representing the collective knowledge of 18 American intelligence agencies. Work on its report concluded approximately one week before the start of – by USA and Israel – the war against Iran, which broke out on February 28. The conclusions from this document raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s announced plan to “cleanse” Iran’s leadership structure and install a leader of his choice in Tehran.
Who Could Take Power in Iran?
The newspaper’s sources indicated that the document outlined scenarios for changing power in Tehran resulting either from a targeted campaign against Iranian leaders, or from a broader attack on leaders and government institutions. According to intelligence, in both cases, Iranian religious and military leaders would respond to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following procedures that guarantee continuity of power.
Unlikely Opposition Takeover
The interviewees emphasized that the prospect of the divided opposition taking control of the country is “improbable.” It does not appear that the report analyzed other possible scenarios, including an American ground operation in Iran or arming Iranian Kurds who would rise up against the authorities in Tehran. It is also unknown whether the large-scale operation described in the report is identical to the currently conducted actions. The White House did not respond to whether the president was informed of these NIC assessments before approving the start of military operations.
Israeli Expert Assessment
With Ofer Shelach, head of the national security program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Jerusalem, Marta Urzędowska talks on Wyborcza.pl about the difficulty of regime change in Iran and Trump’s preference for easy victories.
