Recent U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran aimed to curb its nuclear program, but assessments indicate limited impact on its timeline to develop a weapon.
U.S. and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran
The United States and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28th, with the stated goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Delays to Nuclear Program Minimal
Significant disruption of Iran’s nuclear program would require the destruction or removal of its remaining highly enriched uranium reserves, according to Reuters.
Recent attacks are expected to only slightly delay the construction of a nuclear weapon.
Attacks Focused on Conventional and Nuclear Targets
The latest U.S. and Israeli attacks focused on conventional military targets in Iran, though Israel also struck several important nuclear facilities. U.S. intelligence agencies previously estimated Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to build a weapon within three to six months.
Following attacks on nuclear complexes in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan in June 2025, U.S. intelligence estimates extended this timeframe to approximately 9-12 months. Despite destroying or severely damaging three Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency was unable to verify the location of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
Uranium Remains Secure Underground
Former U.S. intelligence analyst Eric Brewer believes the lack of change in estimated timelines for Iran building a bomb is unsurprising, as recent U.S. attacks were not targeted at facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program.
“To the best of our knowledge, Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material,” Brewer stated, now Vice President of the Nuclear Materials Research Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative think tank. “It is likely located deep underground, where American missiles cannot reach.”
Consideration of More Aggressive Options
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have considered more dangerous operations to hinder Iran’s nuclear efforts, including ground raids to recover enriched uranium potentially stored in a tunnel complex in Isfahan, according to Reuters.
Iran Denies Nuclear Ambitions
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons, while simultaneously enriching uranium to levels far exceeding civilian applications. U.S. intelligence agencies believe Teheran halted work on a nuclear warhead in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend it secretly maintained key elements of the program.