Despite the full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine is preparing for presidential and parliamentary elections, a process urged by allies and viewed with scrutiny by Moscow.
Legal and Technical Obstacles
Ukrainian law stipulates parliamentary elections should have been held in 2023 and presidential elections in 2024. However, the ongoing state of war, declared in February 2022, prevents their execution due to both legal constraints – elections cannot occur within 90 days of the war’s end – and logistical challenges.
The war conditions make conducting elections to the standards of a democratic peacetime nation practically impossible.
Voting Abroad and Security Concerns
A significant number of Ukrainian citizens reside abroad, as economic migrants or war refugees, and retain the right to vote. Ukraine’s diplomatic and consular infrastructure is insufficient to adequately support overseas voting.
Western nations share concerns that security risks for voters are too high to organize elections under current conditions, even in western Ukraine near the Polish border.
Potential Candidates Emerge
It remains unclear whether current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will seek re-election, or who his party, Servant of the People, will nominate if he does not. Potential candidates include Kyrylo Budanov, the current head of the President’s Office and former head of military intelligence, though a formal discussion of his candidacy has not begun.
There is also no confirmation regarding whether former army commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now ambassador to the UK, intends to run.
War Veterans and Future Political Landscape
War veterans are expected to play a significant role in the elections, and the initial phase of the conflict in 2022 will be a key topic of discussion. Moscow anticipates and hopes for mutual accusations and recriminations among Ukrainian figures regarding decisions made during that period.
Fragmented Parliament Anticipated
The next Rada (Ukrainian parliament) is expected to be fragmented, with existing parties like Servant of the People, European Solidarity, Batkivshchyna, and Udar likely to gain only 5-7% support each. This will necessitate coalition governments and potential instability.
New political forces and individuals with no prior political experience are also likely to emerge. The presidential election, likely held first, will influence the balance of power in parliament.
Referendum on Peace Deal Possible
The participation of numerous candidates in the presidential election is seen as a way to build reputations for new political parties. Discussions are ongoing regarding a referendum on a potential peace agreement with Russia, potentially including the status of Donbas, which could become a key campaign issue.
Latest Polls: Zelenskyy vs. Zaluzhnyi
A poll conducted by SOCIS from March 12-18 indicates that Volodymyr Zelenskyy would receive 22.6% of the vote if the presidential election were held in March. Valerii Zaluzhnyi would receive 19.6%, followed by Kyrylo Budanov (10.5%) and Petro Poroshenko (5.7%).
In parliamentary elections, 21% of respondents would vote for a party led by Zaluzhnyi, and 15.3% for a party led by Budanov. Neither party has been formally established.