Ukraine aims to break the stalemate in its fifth year of war by dramatically increasing Russian casualties while addressing critical desertion issues.
Breaking the Russian War Machine
New Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has set an ambitious goal: eliminating 50,000 Russian soldiers monthly—killed or too severely wounded to fight. Current estimates suggest Ukrainian forces are achieving around 30,000 monthly Russian casualties, roughly matching Russia’s recruitment capacity, creating a precarious balance.
The Desertion Crisis
A critical challenge is the growing number of Ukrainian soldiers absent from duty. According to Fedorov, approximately 200,000 cases of desertion or unauthorized absence are currently under investigation, with an additional two million people wanted for avoiding mobilization. This mass absence compounds Ukraine’s manpower shortages.
Drones as Force Multipliers
Ukraine plans to leverage drone technology to achieve its casualty goals. The newly formed Drone Forces, established in 2025, and the broader “Army of Drones” program offer incentives to operators who successfully target Russian soldiers. Minister Fedorov claims drones currently account for approximately 80% of Russian casualties.
Systemic Military Challenges
Ukraine’s military faces deep-rooted issues from pre-war neglect and initial war mismanagement. The lack of an efficient replacement system means soldiers serve continuously without rotation, leading to exhaustion. Additionally, training deficiencies and concerns about incompetent commanders further reduce troop effectiveness and retention.
The Path Forward
The fifth year of war will likely see increased drone deployment and efforts to maintain troop numbers. While Ukraine can hope to inflict unsustainable losses on Russia, it realistically cannot force a peace settlement. The war continues as a struggle of attrition, with each side hoping to outlast the other.
