Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with limited information available about its progress amid media blackout.
Operation in Silence and Gray Zone
The Ukrainian counteroffensive began on February 5-6, coinciding with the disabling of Starlink satellite communication systems used by Russian forces. Poor weather conditions also hindered drone operations, which Ukrainians exploited to strike against stretched Russian positions. The operation has been conducted with remarkable secrecy, with official statements downplaying its significance.
The offensive is focused on two main areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: south of Zaporizhzhia city and the larger area around Hulaypole and Pokrovskye. Russians had made gains in these regions since mid-2025, but their control of newly occupied territory remained weak, creating vulnerabilities that Ukrainians targeted.
Uncertain Front Lines
There is currently no clear front line, but rather a gray zone approximately 40 kilometers wide with small resistance points and infiltration attempts. Continuous artillery shelling and drone activity make movement challenging, and territorial control in this area is highly fluid.
This uncertainty complicates assessment of the offensive’s progress. While pro-Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian advances, pro-Ukrainian sources report minimal changes. The gray nature of the zone means even visual evidence like raised flags over villages may not indicate lasting control.
Strategic Objectives
The apparent goal of the operation is to cut off and possibly destroy Russia’s 34th Army, which is positioned relatively exposed in the area. Ukrainians are attacking at junctions between this army and neighboring forces, exploiting potential coordination issues in the Russian command structure.
Assessing the success of these actions remains difficult due to limited hard evidence. Some reports suggest significant advances, possibly creating a real threat to the 34th Army, but these gains reportedly do not exceed 10 kilometers in a straight line on any attack front.
Technology’s Role
The disabling of Starlink systems used by Russian forces has significantly impacted their communications and reconnaissance capabilities. This was achieved through a registration program implemented by Ukrainian authorities, which cut off unregistered terminals on February 6.
Simultaneously, Russian authorities tightened restrictions on Telegram, another important communication platform for their military. These technological setbacks have significantly hampered Russian command and reconnaissance effectiveness, though it remains too early to determine their long-term impact on the offensive.