Forecasts from Poland’s Institute of Meteorology suggest December could be 1‑2.5 °C warmer than normal, raising doubts about expected Christmas snowfall.
Expected Anomalies
Polish synoptic forecasts indicate a December average temperature anomaly ranging from 1 to 2.5 °C above the 1991‑2020 norm. In the first two weeks, deviations could reach 0.6 to 2.8 °C, with late‑year averages possibly 1.5 to 2.5 °C higher.
EEU’s ECMWF model projects further increases of up to 2.5 °C, while the CFSv2 model suggests a possible 2 °C rise relative to previous years. These long‑term projections are subject to change.
Projected December Temperatures
During the first week, western Poland may see daily highs near 5‑6 °C, exceeding multi‑year norms. Subsequent weeks should normalize, with westward averages dropping to around 4 °C and northern and southern averages to about 1 °C.
What “Above Normal” Means
Synoptic definitions are based on a 30‑year period (1991‑2020). Values sorted from lowest to highest are grouped into “below normal,” “normal,” and “above normal” classes. A month labeled “above normal” can be warmer than at least 20 of the previous 30 years for that month.
Implications for Christmas
The forecasts warn that the upcoming Christmas period may see persistent warmth, rendering snowfall extremely unlikely. However, as long‑range predictions can shift, conditions may evolve.