Polish analyst Daniel Szeligowski explains Russia’s 2021 NATO and U.S. demand documents, outlining why the West must preserve Ukraine’s strategic depth and Poland’s crucial role.
Rationale Behind Russia’s Demands
In December 2021, Russia released two documents aimed at NATO and the United States. The first request was for Ukraine to be brought under Russian control. The second was for Central Europe to become a buffer zone against the West, a target that includes Poland.
Poland’s Strategic Depth and Ukraine’s Buffer
Poland supplies Ukraine with the “strategic depth” that enables the country to hold its ground. Szeligowski warns that without Polish territory, Kyiv could not have defended itself in spring 2022 and would have struggled to stay in its position even today. Russia counts on that depth to win the war.
NATO’s Role and Possible Neutrality
The analyst notes that if Poland were to shut off Ukraine from aid flowing through its borders, the West would face a crisis. Still, Russia wants to see Poland “neutralise” itself and cease being a logistics corridor for NATO.
Drone Attacks as Polish Society Iceberg
Russia’s repeat use of drones in Poland is not an attempt to occupy Warsaw but a psychological tactic designed to frighten the Polish public. The goal is to erode public support for aid to Kyiv and to create pressure on Polish leaders to step back.
Future Scenarios for Poland and Ukraine
Poland could become a “gray zone’’ country with limited maneuverability, while Ukraine might face a militarised state that cannot adopt a liberal political model. The outcome would keep Russia close to an active front, limiting the potential for a stable peace between the West and Moscow.