According to weather models, Poland may see its first October snowfall between early and mid‑October as a cold front from Scandinavia slams into the country.
First Snowfall Expected in Early October
Cold Arctic air arriving from the north could deliver Poland its first October snowfall. After several chillier mornings and hazy days, autumn is entering a new phase.
Weather models predict that during the third week of October a cold front from Scandinavia could sweep into Poland. The U.S. GFS model shows that this front moving toward western Russia will bring Arctic air that will generate the first snowfall of the year across the country. The greatest likelihood of seeing white powder is in northern and northeast Poland—from the Pomeranian coast, through Warmia‑Masuria, to Podlasie.
However, the snow is expected to be symbolic—just 2–3 centimetres—before quickly melting.
Uncertain Forecasts
Although the promise of snow in mid‑October sounds exciting, meteorologists temper enthusiasm. This is the final long‑term forecast window, so large shifts are possible.
Other models suggest that during the same period a maritime high could cover Poland, bringing a pleasant atmosphere and significant temperature swings—from morning frosts to warm, sunny afternoons reaching up to 15°C.
This means there is still a chance for a brief “summer in fall” and several truly golden autumn days before winter really starts to make itself known.
Winter Forecasts: More Rain Than Snow
Teams from the U.S. Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) have already released seasonal outlooks. They indicate that the 2025/2026 winter will be mild and unstable.
Average temperatures will exceed the norm by 2–3 °C. Periods of frost and snowfall will be brief and interrupted by longer warm spells.
Forecasters also expect frequent gusts and heavy rainfall. IMGW data suggest that January may bring more dynamic weather, with brief winter episodes and increased precipitation, but most of it will be rain rather than snow.
A Winter Accent Lasts Only Briefly
Even if light powder does fall in October, true winter feels will still be far away. Meteorologists say any snow that appears will vanish almost as quickly as it arrives.