A United Surveys poll shows 38.9% of Poles believe PiS could be marginalized or collapse due to rising support for Confederation and Grzegorz Braun.
Will PiS be marginalized?
A survey by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska asked respondents if the rising popularity of Confederation and Grzegorz Braun would lead to the marginalization or collapse of the Law and Justice (PiS) party in the coming years. 12% answered “definitely yes” and 26.9% said “rather yes.” However, the majority of respondents disagree. According to 27.7%, marginalization or collapse of PiS “rather won’t happen,” while 26.1% “definitely exclude” this scenario. 7.3% responded “I don’t know/hard to say.”
Coalition vs. Opposition Responses
Supporters of the ruling coalition most frequently answered affirmatively to the question, with a total of 58% (after summing “rather yes” and “definitely yes” responses). Among opposition voters (Confederation and PiS), only 24% consider this scenario probable. Among voters of other parties, 32% believe Jarosław Kaczyński’s party will be marginalized. 53% hold the opposite view. The survey was conducted between January 16-18, 2026, using the CATI & CAWI method on a representative group of n=1000 people.
Korona and Confederation Close to a Tie
For many weeks, the Polish Crown Confederation has been growing in polls. In the latest CBOS survey, Braun’s party received 9.8%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the December survey by this polling agency. Confederation in this context received 11.2% (a decrease of 1.3 percentage points). PiS recorded a decrease of 1 percentage point, translating to 20.4% support.
Right-wing Coalition?
Łukasz Pawłowski, head of the All-Poland Research Group, commented on the situation on the right in a recent interview with Gazeta.pl. Asked whether, in light of current polls, Braun’s group would be part of a potential right-wing coalition, he replied that “today there is no other possibility, both in terms of the Sejm and the Senate.” “Creating such a majority would certainly be a major challenge, so in an election with a 50-50 result, Donald Tusk would be in a better position. If the two coalition blocks on October 15 obtained a total of 227 mandates, it would be easier for Tusk to pull four MPs than for Kaczyński to build a coalition from three parties and not let anyone escape. The right-wing coalition would need a large majority, then PiS with Confederation could pull MPs from Braun,” he said.