Polish defense officials argue that, without major spending increases, new taxes, or compulsory enlistment, the army will remain under‑equipped and inadequate.
Problem One: Money
Even with Poland’s high current defence budget of about 200 billion zloty per year, experts say it is insufficient to fund the army’s equipment plans. Existing borrowing via the Armed Forces Support Fund and the EU SAFE instrument keeps the country on the verge of debt‑related problems, and projected debt could hit 55 % of GDP by 2027, triggering a fiscal precautionary clause. If the Ministry of National Defence (MON) must repay the loans, 40–50 billion zloty each year would be earmarked for debt service, leaving almost nothing for new equipment or other defence spending. Moreover, maintenance costs—estimated at roughly 30 billion zloty per year over a 40‑year life cycle of 600 billion zloty in equipment—have never been systematically planned beyond the next year, putting future budgets in jeopardy. Thus, without cutting ambitious plans or raising society’s contributions, the army’s expansion cannot be financed.
Proposed Solutions: Cut Ambitions or Raise Funds
Experts claim that any increase in defence spending beyond the current three percent of GDP is unlikely, and that shifting debt repayment outside the state budget would accelerate the already looming deficit crisis. Options include a new defence‑tax, reinstating compulsory conscription, or boosting existing taxes to cover the shortfall. However, each choice risks economic growth and public support, especially given that other service sectors already face funding gaps. Consequently, the defence sector can only achieve marginal relief by optimizing spending, but cannot resolve the systemic shortfall.
Problem Two: People
The Polish army aims for a peacetime strength of 300,000 personnel—250,000 full‑time and 50,000 territorial defence soldiers—plus a large reserve pool that could swell the army to over half a million in wartime. Today, the army has about 210,000 personnel. To reach the target, roughly 90,000 new recruits, mainly full‑time soldiers, would be needed, which is difficult given the country’s shrinking and ageing population. Sociologist Dr. Aneta Baranowska notes that the workforce is aging and shrinking, and the pool of healthy candidates is dwindling. Generation Z, the main potential recruits, is less attracted to hierarchical, rigid, and relocation‑heavy military careers, instead preferring flexible employment and a balanced private life. These mismatches make it harder for the army to recruit sufficient quality personnel.
Proposed Solutions: Adapt to Changing Demographics
Polish defence leadership is aware of the “generation mismatch” problem and is running projects to improve recruitment appeal for Generation Z, although fundamental changes to the army’s structure are unlikely. Suggested measures include enhancing employment conditions, investing in automation and modern technology such as drones and unmanned systems to offset manpower shortages, building an extensive mobilisation reserve system, and fostering cooperation with schools and universities to increase interest in military careers. These actions would be incremental adjustments rather than a complete strategic overhaul.
