Poland’s economy faces stagnation without new workforce according to ZUS pension fund projections.
ZUS Pension Fund Forecast
The Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) has prepared a long-term forecast for the pension fund that could serve as a useful analytical tool.
Projected Deficits
By the end of the forecast horizon in 2080, the pension fund may face annual deficits reaching half a trillion zlotys.
Economic Context
When measured as a percentage of GDP, the situation is not expected to be worse than it is today, though the replacement rate—pensions as a proportion of final earnings—remains a separate consideration.
Basis of Projections
The ZUS forecast is based on assumptions from the Ministry of Finance’s latest demographic forecast, released in autumn 2025.