Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly preparing for potential elections, even considering alternative candidates amid ongoing war conditions.
Zelenskyy Orders Election Preparations
“The Economist” reported this week that President Zelenskyy has instructed his team to begin preparations for elections. Sources cited by the publication differ on the exact timeline, but most indicate Zelenskyy plans to hold elections in the summer.
The report details a meeting where Zelenskyy directed his team to prepare for elections following a full ceasefire, which U.S. officials expect by the end of April.
Two Scenarios Under Consideration
According to sources close to Zelenskyy’s circle, as reported by the independent Russian portal Meduza, the Ukrainian leader is considering at least two scenarios for rapid presidential elections. Late last year, Zelenskyy reportedly seriously contemplated not seeking re-election.
Budanov as Potential Successor
One alternative candidate discussed within Zelenskyy’s inner circle is Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), who now leads the President’s Office following Andriy Yermak’s dismissal. A source close to the President stated Zelenskyy faces a dilemma: to run himself or allow Budanov to run, potentially serving as a “guarantee of security” after Zelenskyy leaves office.
Another option involves Zelenskyy running while Budanov establishes a new political party. Another source confirmed Zelenskyy’s participation in the presidential race is uncertain, stating he believes decisions must be made based on the evolving situation.
Zelenskyy’s Potential Parliamentary Path
Meduza also noted Zelenskyy has considered building a career in parliament, a possibility not previously discussed.
Załużny as a Competitive Threat
A potential reason for Zelenskyy not running is competition from Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Sociological surveys indicate a significant lack of trust in the current president, while Zaluzhnyi is seen as the main rival and potential opposition candidate. Zaluzhnyi has not officially announced his candidacy, but sources believe he will participate in the elections.
Conditions for Holding Elections
Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated his willingness to hold presidential elections if European partners provide security guarantees during that period. He emphasized the need for security measures to allow voting under shelling and missile attacks, and for the military to participate. He also highlighted the need for a legal framework to conduct elections during a state of war.
Zelenskyy requested assistance from the United States and European partners in ensuring security for the vote, suggesting Ukraine could be ready for elections within 60-90 days. He also plans to ask Ukrainian parliamentarians to propose legal changes to allow elections during a state of war.
Legal and Logistical Challenges
Currently, lifting the state of war is a necessary first step to begin the electoral process. The Ukrainian constitution stipulates elections can occur no earlier than 90 days after the state of war ends. Ukrainian law also requires at least 60 days of campaigning, potentially pushing the earliest possible election date to early July. However, officials estimate at least three months are needed to update voter lists due to the war.
Opposition representatives point to logistical challenges, including enabling voting for millions of Ukrainians abroad, on the front lines, or in Russian-occupied territories. A possible solution is the government’s Diia mobile application, but its use raises concerns about transparency. Opposition parties argue fair elections require an end to wartime propaganda and censorship.
According to the Ukrainian constitution, parliamentary elections should have been held in 2023, and presidential elections in 2024. However, due to the state of war, which has been in effect since February 2022, holding them is impossible due to legal and organizational reasons.
