A Kyiv poll in March shows a rise in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s approval rating to 62%, linked to views on potential territorial concessions.
Increased Support for Zelenskyy
Trust in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rose to 62% in the first week of March, compared to 53% in February, according to a study published on March 18 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
32% of Ukrainians do not trust Zelenskyy, and 6% have no definitive opinion of the head of state.
Previous Decline in Approval
Previously, Zelenskyy had experienced a decline, with the February result 8 percentage points lower than in January, when 61% of respondents trusted him. Simultaneously, the percentage of those who did not trust Zelenskyy increased in February from 33% to 41%.
Territorial Concessions and Approval
Acceptance of territorial concessions influences support for Zelenskyy.
The institute notes that “in this period, there were no particularly loud events, making it difficult to pinpoint specific causes.” However, a more detailed analysis reveals a correlation: the more willing an individual was to accept the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region in exchange for security guarantees, the more their trust in the president decreased.
Impact of Concession Stance on Trust
Among those strongly inclined to such a solution, trust fell from 30% to 23% (-7 percentage points). Among those rather inclined, it decreased from 58% to 43% (-15 percentage points), and among the undecided, from 59% to 42% (-17 percentage points). Conversely, among those firmly rejecting such a scenario, the level of trust remained almost stable – 68% at the end of January and 64% in mid-February.
Expectations and Future Elections
The institute analyzes that those willing to compromise may have had higher expectations for the results of peace negotiations at the end of January. The study also found that in March, 69% of people believed that elections in Ukraine should be held after a lasting end to the war.
12% believe voting should take place now, and 13% would like elections to be held after a ceasefire.
Methodology and Scope of the Poll
The survey was conducted by telephone between March 1-8 with 1003 respondents residing in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government. The institute notes that part of the citizens are internally displaced persons who have left occupied territories. The survey did not include citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.
