A new opinion poll released today shows the Civic Coalition just narrowly beating Law and Justice, while Grzegorz Braun’s new party enters Parliament, raising concerns about political radicalisation.
Minimal advantage of KO over PiS
The latest survey recorded the Civic Coalition at 28.7% of support, edging over Law and Justice by only 0.6 percentage points. Kaczynski’s coalition therefore holds a barely symbolic lead and does not solidify a comfortable position.
Confederation third strongest, Braun’s faction also grows
Confederation placed third in the poll, with 13.4% of respondents wishing to vote for it, followed by the Left at 7.6%. The Polish Crown faction of Grzegorz Braun also surpassed the electoral threshold, achieving 5.7% support. Experts view this parliamentary entry as a key signal of political radicalisation.
Hołowni and PSL below threshold
Szymon Hołowni’s Poland 2050 captured only 1% of support, keeping it outside Parliament. Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk of the University of Warsaw described the result as the end for Hołowni and the short-term party. Polish Democratic Union (PSL) also fell short at 4.1%, as did the Together Party with 2.6%.
Poliologists: “One death and no wedding”
Experts argue that, aside from Braun’s entry, the overall balance of power has not shifted dramatically. “Everything is almost as before, except for Braun’s party’s position,” said Prof. Marek Migalski of the Silesian University. Prof. Chwedoruk noted that the “political death” of Poland 2050 is now a fact, likening the parliamentary speaker’s retreat to “fleeing from a sinking ship.”
Polarisation and possible scenarios after the elections
The poll indicates that forming a governing coalition after the upcoming elections could be difficult. The most plausible option appears to be a coalition between PiS and Confederation, but the demands from Confederation’s leaders may prove costly for Kaczynski’s party. Additionally, KO’s modest lead and lack of potential partners constrain its chances of governing alone.
