A recent survey by IBRiS for Onet shows that a coalition of Poland’s Law and Justice party and the Confederation could secure 248 seats, prompting questions on who would lead the prospective government.
Party Seat Projections
According to the IBRiS poll, Law and Justice would win about 170 seats and the Confederation about 78. Together, they would hold a 248‑seat majority.
Who Should Be Premier?
Respondents were asked who should head the new government two years after the parliamentary elections.
Prime‑Minister Preference Results
Former premier Mateusz Morawiecki led the poll at 27.5%, followed by Confederation vice‑marshal Krzysztof Bosak at 14.5% and Sławomir Mentzen at 11.6%. 32.6% said they did not know or were unsure.
Overall Poll Results
The survey found Koalicja Obywatelska at 30.5%, Law and Justice at 27.3% and the Confederation at 14.1%. Small parties—Nowa Lewica (7.1%) and Confederacja Korony Polskiej (6.1%)—also cleared the 5 % threshold.
Poland’s 5 % threshold would remain unmet by the PSL (4.6%), Partia Razem (2.9%) and Polska 2050 (1.6%). Undecided voters comprised 5.9% of respondents.
Polling Methodology
The CATI telephone survey was conducted on 8‑9 October with a 1,100‑person adult sample.
