US, Denmark, and Greenland held talks in Washington as Trump signals renewed interest in controlling the strategically vital Arctic island.
Talks Without Breakthrough
January’s trilateral consultations between the US, Denmark, and Greenland in Washington did not yield a breakthrough. While the Danish and Greenlandic sides described a “good atmosphere,” key differences remain unresolved. The United States, under Donald Trump’s leadership, continues to signal its desire to gain control of the island. For Copenhagen, the non-negotiable boundary remains respect for Denmark’s territorial integrity and Greenland’s right to self-determination.
The US administration has not officially commented on the talks, but the President has again raised the issue of Greenland on social media, linking it to threats from Russia and China. It was only established that talks will continue within a working group framework.
Why Greenland Matters to the US
OSW analysis points out that interest in Greenland is not new. During Trump’s first term, the US increased its activity in the Arctic, including blocking Chinese investments on the island, offering to purchase it, and opening a consulate in Nuuk. The US administration points to growing Russian and Chinese presence in the region and the future importance of the Arctic for shipping and strategic resource extraction due to melting ice.
Though Greenland formally remains part of Denmark, the US has significant military freedom on the island thanks to the 1951 defense agreement. Currently, the US maintains the Pituffik Space Base, which is crucial for monitoring the Arctic.
Possible Scenarios
OSW analysts outline several possible scenarios. The mildest suggests that tough American rhetoric aims to pressure Denmark, Europe, and Canada for greater military engagement in the Arctic, particularly regarding monitoring of the Russian Northern Fleet. Such a goal might be indicated by Vice President JD Vance’s January 8th call for greater European ally involvement in Greenland.
If Trump’s communications are taken literally, his team appears to be seeking control over the island. This seems like a presidential idea for building political legacy through territorial expansion, which simultaneously aligns with the administration’s strategic goals for Western Hemisphere dominance.
A more ambitious – and politically riskier – scenario involves long-term “attraction” of Greenland to the US through investments and support for its path to independence, followed by closer relations with Washington. However, such a process extends beyond a single presidential term, making it politically unattractive to Trump.
Denmark Buys Time and Strengthens Military
According to OSW, Copenhagen has adopted a “crisis management” strategy. On one hand, it is strengthening military cooperation with the US and investing in Greenland’s defense; on the other, it is tightening relations with the island’s authorities and seeking diplomatic support in Europe. The tensions are expected to result in increased military presence of allies in Greenland. Additional soldiers and officers from several NATO countries were already sent there in January. Larger military exercises are planned for 2026, designed to show that the island is well-protected even without changing its status.
Greenland Rejects Changing Flags
Although Greenland has long considered independence, OSW analysis emphasizes that the current dominant view is that this is not a project for the immediate future. Ideas about purchasing the island or joining the US have faced clear public opposition, evidenced by protests in 2025. Authorities in Nuuk declare willingness to cooperate economically with the US, particularly in mining, tourism, and infrastructure, but without consent to change national affiliation.
Conflict Without Clear Resolution
OSW analysis directly states that talks in Washington may temporarily lower tensions, but the Greenland issue will resurface. The dispute will burden US relations with Denmark and Europe, and more broadly, affect the sense of security on the continent. Increased US pressure on Greenland could spark debate on the island about joining the EU (the island is associated with the EU as an overseas territory). It left European communities in 1985 after gaining autonomy in 1979, wanting to pursue independent fisheries policy and emphasize distinctiveness from Denmark.
