Witold Sokała argues Russia’s deteriorating situation may bring the Ukraine conflict closer to resolution than expected.
Russia’s Unenviable Position
Twelve years after the bandit raid on Crimea and Donbas, and nearly four years after the open and full-scale aggression against the rest of Ukraine, Russia finds itself in an unenviable situation.
Mobilization and External Factors
Thanks to impressive mobilization of all available reserves and fortunate external circumstances—sometimes discreetly assisted by Russian intelligence services—the Kremlin still avoids a spectacular crash.
Subcutaneous Processes
Beneath the surface, inevitable processes are unfolding that could bring the Russian-Ukrainian conflict closer to resolution than currently apparent.
The Groundhog Day Cycle
The stubborn repetition of negotiations, promises, new conditions, and military escalations may unexpectedly end, whether in a week, month, or half year.
Urgent Reflection Needed
This necessitates urgent consideration not only of how to silence the guns but also of what comes next, especially if lasting peace is desired.
