A new survey shows Civic Coalition leading with 30.1%, while combined Confederation parties surpass Law and Justice in support.
Survey Results
A poll published by “Rz” shows that if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, 30.1% of respondents would vote for the Civic Coalition. Law and Justice (PiS) would come second with 22.1%, giving KO an 8 percentage point lead. Confederation would be third with 13.8% support.
Fourth place goes to Confederation of the Polish Crown with 9.2%, followed by Left with 6.8%. Both parties exceed the 5% electoral threshold. Below the threshold are: Polish People’s Party (4.2%), Razem party (3.4%), and Poland 2050 (1.5%). 8.9% of respondents are undecided.
Combined Confederations Surpass PiS
The poll results for “Rz” indicate that the right-wing political landscape is becoming tighter. Although differences between parties remain significant, the combined Confederations – Freedom and Independence of Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Mentzen and the Polish Crown of Grzegorz Braun – would achieve better results than Jarosław Kaczyński’s party, which has dominated the right-wing so far.
The survey shows 60.6% of respondents declare they would vote. The research was conducted by IBRiS for “Rzeczpospolita” on a sample of 1,073 people using the CATI method.
Seat Calculations. KO and Left Without Majority
Dr. hab. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University calculated support into seats. According to his calculations, the Civic Coalition could count on 186 seats, and the Left on 26. Together, this would give 212 votes, which is too few to obtain a majority in the 460-member Sejm. According to the same calculations, Law and Justice would get 131 seats, Confederation 74, and Confederation of the Polish Crown 43. Such a distribution would give the right-wing a total of 248 seats, i.e., a clear parliamentary majority. The expert emphasized that the Polish People’s Party is becoming a kingmaker.
PiS Begins “March to Victory”
It has been reported that Jarosław Kaczyński has announced a march to victory, starting on March 7. Initially, it was unclear what the president’s ambiguous promises meant. Now it is known that on Saturday, the name of the person who will head the future government from PiS is set to be announced. The party, according to media reports, is on the brink of a split, but despite this, its members declare they will fight for victory in 2027. Jarosław Kaczyński ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with Grzegorz Braun’s party.
Surprising Poll?
It is worth noting that other recent polls show slightly different proportions. In a Pollster Institute survey for “Super Express” from February 25-26, Civic Coalition obtained 34.25%, Law and Justice – 28.45%, and Confederation – 11.06%. In turn, in an Ipsos survey for TVP Info from February 19-20, KO could count on 29%, PiS on 26%, and the next places were taken by Confederation, Confederation of the Polish Crown, and Left with results of 14%, 7%, and 6% respectively. The differences between polls show that the balance of power is close.
