Facing stalled progress in Iran, Ukraine, and the Gaza Strip, the Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Havana in hopes of securing a decisive foreign policy victory to boost its global standing.
The Push for Regime Change
The U.S. administration has ramped up pressure on Cuba, relying primarily on economic sanctions and signals regarding potential special operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently held the Havana government responsible for the country’s energy and humanitarian crises, citing corruption and mismanagement. Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly highlighted the institutional and economic collapse of the Cuban state. U.S. legal authorities have also leveled charges against former leader Raul Castro as part of a broader pressure strategy.
CNN notes that this approach is part of the “Donroe Doctrine,” a term coined by Trump that merges the Monroe Doctrine—which asserted Latin America as an exclusive U.S. sphere of influence—with his own name. The goal is to solidify American dominance in the Western Hemisphere while curbing the influence of Russia and China. Ousting the regime in Havana would be framed as a historic success that previous presidents failed to achieve.
Stalled Global Initiatives
A major challenge for the Trump administration is the lack of clear foreign policy successes. With no resolution in sight for the war in Iran, and efforts to settle the conflict in Ukraine or secure a ceasefire in Gaza proving largely ineffective, the administration is under increasing pressure to deliver a quick, visible win on a different front.
Military and Political Risks
A potential military operation carries higher risks than the brief intervention in Venezuela seen earlier this year. Despite having outdated equipment, the Cuban armed forces could inflict real casualties on U.S. troops, and the island’s defense doctrine requires a full civilian mobilization in the event of an invasion.
Domestically, a new regional conflict could weaken the Republican position ahead of the midterm elections and fuel criticism from Democrats over the social and economic costs. While an attack on the island has significant support within the Cuban-American community, it remains a politically volatile gamble.
