Analysts warn Russia is preparing a large-scale false flag operation in Belarus to accuse Ukraine of sabotage and escalate tensions.
Russia Plans Provocation in Belarus
According to reports from Onet, citing analysis from the Prawa Sprawa GI think tank, Russia is preparing a large-scale false flag operation in Belarus aimed at accusing Ukraine of sabotage.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also stated that Belarusian authorities are increasingly preparing for military escalation against Ukraine and increased pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.
Lukashenko’s War Preparations
Recent statements by Alexander Lukashenko during a review of the Belarusian Armed Forces, the largest in the country’s history, suggest preparations for conflict. He stated, “There can be no talk of peacetime. We are preparing for war.”
Lukashenko added that Belarus is “absolutely opposed to war,” but its armed forces exist to respond if anyone attempts to engage Minsk “through the sights of weapons.”
Captured Soldier to “Reveal” Espionage
The Prawa Sprawa GI think tank anticipates the release this week of a recording of an interrogation of a captured soldier from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (HUR).
Under pressure, the soldier is expected to confirm that Ukrainian intelligence has been gathering information on fuel depots, oil product shipment schedules, and oil supply routes to key Belarusian enterprises.
Allegations of Ukrainian Intelligence Gathering
The Ukrainian soldier is also alleged to “reveal” that Ukrainian intelligence has been collecting communications between Belarusian air traffic controllers and pilots of Belavia airlines.
The US lifted sanctions on Belavia in November of last year, along with sanctions on two aircraft and a helicopter used by Alexander Lukashenko and his associates, signaling a potential warming of relations between Washington and Minsk. However, EU sanctions on Belavia remain in place.
Zelenskyy Warns of Russian Attempts to Involve Belarus
According to the Prawa Sprawa GI think tank, possible acts of sabotage in Belarus’s critical infrastructure are also anticipated, representing an attempt by Russian special services to accuse Ukraine of destabilizing the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Telegram last Friday (April 19th) that intelligence indicates road construction and artillery positions are being established along the Ukraine-Belarus border, warning that Russia is attempting to draw Belarus back into the war.
