An analyst assesses that claims of a US strategy to weaken China through conflict with Iran lack merit, with Beijing largely benefiting from the resulting chaos.
US Narrative Aids China
Analysts believe assertions that a war with Iran is a US strategy to target China are unfounded. The suggestion that Donald Trump aims to eliminate Iran as a US adversary to refocus on China and the Pacific is not supported by evidence.
From a Chinese perspective, the benefits of this conflict are still outweighing the costs, primarily by exposing Trump’s policies as chaotic and destructive, fueling Chinese diplomacy and propaganda.
China’s View of US Hegemony
Beijing has long viewed Washington as a dangerous hegemon, using its economic and military power to compel others to act in US interests. China proposes “multipolarity,” a world with several major powers, including a diminished US, exerting influence.
Trump’s actions in the global economy provide China with ammunition to promote its vision, allowing it to present itself as a stable partner to Southeast Asian nations affected by supply disruptions.
Weakening US Influence
China seeks to weaken US influence in the region, viewing the conflict as an opportunity to demonstrate the depletion of US military potential, particularly precision ammunition reliant on Chinese raw materials.
This situation increases China’s ability to manage relations with the US to its advantage.
China’s Confidence in Managing US Relations
Analysts suggest China believes it can navigate tensions with the US, similar to its success in the trade dispute, where it compelled the US to reverse course.
Costs and Mitigation
While the war in the Persian Gulf carries economic and political costs for China, they are not substantial enough to trigger a significant response. Iran is a source of raw materials, but not a critical one, accounting for up to 15% of China’s oil imports.
The potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting half of China’s strategic resource imports, is a greater concern. However, the Chinese government is actively mitigating the economic impact through state-controlled fuel prices.
Strategic Partnership and Limited Support
Iran was a strategic partner for China, representing anti-American sentiment and regional destabilization potential. However, China maintained relations with other regional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, prioritizing economic cooperation, especially in technology.
China has provided limited support to Iran, potentially including satellite imagery and assistance with missile and drone planning, but has refrained from overt military aid, adhering to its non-alliance policy.
China’s Military Limitations
China recognizes its military limitations compared to the US, continuing a modernization process to enhance its global operational capabilities. However, it lacks the experience and decisiveness to project power like the US.
China views alliances differently, favoring selective cooperation based on shared interests, as seen in its relationship with Russia, despite underlying contradictions.
Taiwan and US Competition
The conflict has not altered China’s view of Taiwan or US willingness to defend it. It is considered another factor in risk assessment, but not a critical one.
China believes it can manage relations with the US to its benefit, noting the emphasis on Asia and Taiwan in US strategic documents, alongside criticism of the EU, and the US’s ambiguous approach to its Asian allies.
Potential for Dialogue
Preparations for a potential Trump visit to China and a subsequent Xi Jinping visit to Washington suggest an opportunity for dialogue and stabilization of relations. China believes Trump needs these direct interactions, creating leverage for advancing Chinese interests.
