New poll shows Citizen’s Coalition leading Polish parliamentary race but narrowing as undecided voters surge.
Poll Results
A new Virtual Poland poll, conducted February 20-21, 2026, places Citizen’s Coalition (KO) at 30.7% support, a 1.8 percentage point drop since mid-February. Law and Justice (PiS) follows at 21.5%, down 1.2 percentage points. The gap between the top two parties is 9.2 percentage points.
Volatile Electorate
Undecided voters have significantly increased, now standing at 8% of respondents, a 4 percentage point rise. This effectively doubles the group of wavering voters within weeks, signaling growing uncertainty among the electorate.
Right-Wing Dynamics
Confederation solidifies its third place position with 13.2% support, a slight 0.2 percentage point increase. More significantly, Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown, running separately, achieves 10%. Combined, these right-wing entities secure 23.2% support, trailing KO by only 7.5 percentage points.
Left-Wing Performance
The Left party garners 7.5% support, down 0.5 percentage points but clearing the electoral threshold. Polish Peasant Party (PSL) sits exactly at the 5% threshold, with a minimal 0.2 percentage point increase. Smaller post-Third Way parties (Party Razem, Poland 2050, Party Centre) trail well below threshold levels.
Seat Distribution
A simulation of 460 seats shows KO potentially winning 183. With support from The Left (29 seats) and PSL (13 seats), this totals 225 seats, falling six short of the absolute majority (231). Conversely, PiS (122 seats), Confederation (67 seats), and Braun’s group (46 seats) could form a bloc of 235 seats, constituting a potential majority.
Methodology
The survey, conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS for Virtual Poland, used mixed CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) and CAWI (web surveys) methods. The sample included 1,000 representative adult Poles.
