A former Polish MP predicts a reckoning for Morawiecki as Kaczyński strategically waits to strike, viewing the PiS party as his personal domain.
Kaczyński’s Calculated Delay
Every PiS politician who collaborated with Mateusz Morawiecki will eventually face an unavoidable proposition: a summons for discussion, expectations, and potentially promises related to electoral lists. This will mark the final settlement with Morawiecki, according to Michał Wypij, a former MP from Jarosław Gowin’s Porozumienie.
The Illusion of “Two Lungs” in PiS
The concept of “two lungs” within Law and Justice, as proposed by party leader Jarosław Kaczyński, is an illusion. There are only tactical and temporary truces; Kaczyński hasn’t solved the problem, merely bought time.
Morawiecki’s Emerging Strength
Morawiecki has demonstrated a power base, signaling the true battle has yet to begin. Kaczyński doesn’t believe in sharing power or influence, especially within his political sphere, treating the party as a personal possession.
Kaczyński’s Control and Retaliation
Kaczyński will not allow any other center of decision-making to operate outside his control. He has bought time to prepare a decisive move, as a judgment against Morawiecki has already been made. In Kaczyński’s system, one must have their own support base or face political ruin.
A Succession Plan, Not a Power Grab?
Morawiecki isn’t aiming to seize power within PiS, but rather to inherit after Kaczyński. He has already begun his maneuvering, understanding the need to build support before being marginalized.
The Risk of Political Annihilation
Morawiecki must demonstrate strength and consistently build it, or risk political annihilation when Kaczyński deems the moment right to attack. This mirrors the fate of Gowin’s political circle.
Kaczyński’s Ruthless Tactics
Kaczyński is unburdened by scruples in political maneuvering. He recalls successfully thwarting Kaczyński during the envelope elections, despite facing a barrage of underhanded tactics and pressure.
The Bitter Aftermath of Past Conflicts
The victory against Kaczyński was bittersweet, leading to a reckoning for those involved. Wypij prepared a motion to leave the PiS club, gathering 17 signatures, but was persuaded to withdraw it at the last moment.
Fear and Submission
Those who initially signed the motion succumbed to fear of asserting their agency. Wypij predicted the end for their group, as Kaczyński wouldn’t miss another opportunity. The judgment against Morawiecki was sealed when Kaczyński publicly stated that those involved in Morawiecki’s association would be excluded from electoral lists.
Morawiecki’s Limited Options
Morawiecki will attempt to build a strong enough base to function within a cooperative system with Kaczyński, but Kaczyński will seek opportunities to eliminate or weaken him. The notion of PiS operating with “two lungs” is a naive illusion.
Kaczyński’s Patience and Methods
Kaczyński is patient and waits for the opportune moment. He used Adam Bielan to undermine the Porozumienie, employing various tactics to break their resolve, and even resorted to buying off politicians like Agnieszka Ścigaj with ministerial positions to secure a majority.
The Party Above the State
For Kaczyński, the party always takes precedence. He was willing to relinquish state positions to maintain control over the party, prioritizing its interests above all else.
A Retirement Scenario Unlikely
The scenario of Kaczyński retiring is a recurring but unrealized possibility. PiS is Kaczyński’s property.
The Art of Deception
Kaczyński is a skilled player who uses charm as a smokescreen. After dismantling their party during the Polish Deal, he questioned Gowin: “Did you really think I would let you get away with what you did during the envelope elections?” He never forgets.
Morawiecki’s Calculated Approach
Morawiecki has built his position by avoiding direct confrontations and often deferring difficult decisions to others. This style is based more on caution than leadership.
Past Instances of Deference
This was evident in the KPO issue and the envelope elections. Morawiecki initially opposed the latter but was ultimately swayed. It’s unclear whether it was opportunism or cowardice that led him to support the illegal elections, a decision that will likely result in an indictment.
Morawiecki’s Leadership Potential
Despite his tendencies towards calculation and caution, Morawiecki is an experienced and ruthless politician, having served as prime minister for a significant period in the Third Republic.
Czarnek as a Tactical Pawn
Czarnek is merely a tactical element in this game, not its author. The real struggle is between Kaczyński and Morawiecki, and it has spiraled out of control. PiS is no longer a team, but a battlefield of factions with diminishing unity.
