Poll by the Pollster Institute for SuperExpress shows that if a second round of Poland’s presidential election occurred this Sunday, incumbent Karol Nawrocki would defeat Rafał Trzaskowski by a 0.12‑point margin.
Poll Results: 0.12% Edge for Nawrocki
The Pollster Institute’s survey, conducted 15‑17 November among 1,003 adults, found that Karol Nawrocki would secure 50.06% of the vote if a runoff were held today, just ahead of Rafał Trzaskowski, who would receive 49.94%.
Only a 0.12‑percentage‑point difference would dictate the winner, highlighting the electorate’s near split.
Politologist Deems Poland a “Political Paralysis”
Professor Kazimierz Kik explained that the poll reflects the current polarised political landscape, with only the Civic Coalition and Law and Justice parties vying for power, and Poland effectively in a state of paralysis.
He urged both parties to shoulder responsibility for the nation rather than mere party interests, suggesting collaboration rather than confrontation.
2025 Election: Nawrocki Clinches Victory
In the actual second round held in June, Karol Nawrocki, the Law and Justice-backed candidate, won with 50.89% (10,606,877 votes) versus Rafał Trzaskowski’s 49.11% (10,237,286 votes).
The turnout was 71.63%, and the first round featured additional candidates such as Sławomir Mentzen, Grzegorz Braun, and others.
