Polish voters polled by Opinia24 in early December gave Civic Coalition 31.7%, a drop of 1.3 percentage points from the prior month.
Survey Results
In a mixed-mode poll conducted 1‑3 December, the Civic Coalition received 31.7% of respondents, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. Law and Justice led with 25.1%, a decrease of 2.3 points, while Confederation trailed at 14.6%, up 2.0 points. The survey sampled 1,000 adults, including 509 decisive voters, using telephone CATI and online CAWI methods.
Two Parties Could Still Gain Seats
The poll indicated that the Left would cross the electoral threshold with 6.6% (+0.3 points) and Grzegorz Braun’s Polish Crown Confederation would reach 6.2% (+0.3 points). Parties falling short included Together Party at 4.6% (+1.5 points), Poland 2050 at 2.8% (+1.1 points) and the Polish People’s Party at 1.2% (‑0.2 points). One percent of respondents said they would vote for a different party, and 6.2% chose “hard to say.”
Earlier Survey
A November 21‑22 poll by IBRIS for Rzeczpospolita found the Civic Coalition ahead with 30.4%, Law and Justice at 27.1%, and Confederation at 16.1%. The Left (7.2%) and Polish Crown Confederation (5.1%) would have entered parliament under those figures. Together Party received 3.9%, the Polish People’s Party 3.2%, and Poland 2050 1.7%. Five percent of respondents were unsure of their choice, and the projected turnout was 58%.
