A recent poll shows the Civic Coalition with 35.84% support, insufficient for a parliamentary majority without coalition partners, as PIS trails significantly.
Poll Results Breakdown
The Civic Coalition (KO) garnered 35.84% of support, an increase of 2.87 percentage points compared to a similar poll in late April. Law and Justice (PiS) received 26.89% of votes, a decrease of 2.11 percentage points. Confederation secured third place with 11.74% support, down 0.71 percentage points.
New Left followed with 7.18% of respondents’ backing, a 0.53 percentage point increase. Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown received 5.54% support. The Together party also qualified for parliament with 5.45%. Polish People’s Party (4.25%) and Poland 2050 (2.31%) would not cross the electoral threshold.
Potential Majority Scenarios
Political scientist Dr. Maciej Onasz from the University of Łódź calculated that based on this poll, the Civic Coalition could secure 205 seats. Law and Justice would obtain 160 seats, and Confederation 56. New Left would get 24 seats, Confederation of the Polish Crown 9, and Together 6.
According to the expert, a KO and Confederation coalition would have a majority with 261 seats. However, the current ruling coalition would lack a majority as PSL and Poland 2050 would not enter parliament. KO and New Left alone would have 229 seats. A coalition including Together would increase this to 235 seats.
Previous Poll Data
The previous Opinia24 poll for “Gazeta Wyborcza” also showed the Civic Coalition leading with 33.8% support. Law and Justice was second with 24.8%, and Confederation third with 11.7%. Confederation of the Polish Crown received 7.8%, and New Left 7%. Poland 2050 (3%), Together (1.9%), and PSL (1.9%) would not have entered parliament. 7.5% of respondents were undecided.
This survey was conducted from May 4-6 using a mixed methodology (CATI, CAWI) with a representative sample of 1002 adult Poles.
