New poll shows KO leading with 32.3%, while PiS drops to 25.3%, threatening current governing coalition’s majority.
Poll: KO Leads, PiS Loses Ground
According to a United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska, if parliamentary elections were held at the beginning of February, Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) would win with 32.3% (up 0.5 percentage points compared to January). In second place would be Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) with 25.3% (down 2.7 percentage points). Third place went to Konfederacja with 11.2% (down 2.8 percentage points).
Fourth place went to Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, which 7.7% of respondents would vote for (up 0.6 percentage points). Lewica would also introduce deputies to the Sejm with 6.6% (up 0.7 percentage points).
Three Groups Outside Parliament
Below the electoral threshold were: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (4.9%), Partia Razem (3.7%) and Polska 2050 (2.1%). Undecided voters constitute 8% of respondents.
The survey was conducted on January 30-February 1 using CATI and CAWI methods (telephone survey and online questionnaire) on a representative group of n=1000 people.
KO Without Majority
According to estimates by political scientist Dr. Maciej Onasz from the University of Łódź, with such results, KO would introduce 198 deputies to the Sejm, PiS – 146, Konfederacja – 56, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej – 37, and Lewica – 23. Thus, the current governing coalition would lose its majority.
2023 Parliamentary Elections. PiS Won but Lost Power
In the 2023 parliamentary elections, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość won 35.38% of the vote. At that time, 30.7% of Poles voted for Koalicja Obywatelska. Trzecia Droga (a coalition of Poland 2050 of Szymon Hołownia and PSL) was supported by 14.4% of voters.
Lewica and Konfederacja also introduced deputies to the Sejm with 8.61% and 7.16% respectively. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość then introduced 194 deputies to the Sejm, KO – 157, Trzecia Droga – 65, Lewica – 26, and Konfederacja – 18.
